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Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in combination with the deadly dam accident in Brazil earlier this year. The latter is a serious disruption that has already had an immediate negative impact on Capesize earnings. Brazil is the world’s second largest iron ore producer country after Australia, with approx. 70% of exports going to East Asia, and most iron ore consists of the highest quality found worldwide that does not require much processing. In addition, other production sites in Brazil are now in the public eye and currently under scrutiny when it comes down to their procedures, safety protocols and infrastructure and might not be able to increase production as desired. Hence, the imminent decrease of Brazil’s output will definitely reduce ton-mile revenue for Capes. The question now is if China is able to, and if they will respond with an increase of their domestic production from their high-cost mines, which will furthermore keep Cape revenues from rebounding to previous higher observed levels.
Besides the Capesize segment, the sudden drop and the swift reversal of sentiment was observed across all major trading routes and all ship sizes. This could be due to the turbulence deriving from the US-China trade war. While many reports/forecasts have been published and a lot of opinions have been heard, the only sure thing is that it adds uncertainty to the an already worrying global economy and a puzzled (amid coming regulations) shipping ecosystem. In the beginning, when the second worldwide largest economy showed signals of slowing down and seemed unable to maintain growth figures, analysts were pointing to the trade war. Recently though, many are wondering if a Chinese structural and fundamental problem will soon surface. In my point of view, if such problem does exist, the shipping world should focus on how the Chinese administration would tackle it. The country’s administration is currently signaling potential further stimulus measures and several are debating if such a program will have a positive impact on seaborne trade and to what degree.
The very slow fresh cargo supply of the past couple of months resulted in a slowdown of SnP activity, which is down 33% ytd. However, from the start of last week a more normal flow of cargo is observed and the BDI showed signs of recovering. At the same time, comparing past week’s SnP market to the start of this month we noted fresh prospective buyers coming on-board ships, while proven buyers took the opportunity to test sellers with levels depicting current market conditions and establishing new market levels.
Whilst some owners worry that we are entering a global bear market and are skeptical if this downturn was an indicator of a more structural issue, the BDI is now on a positive trend and others believe that we are heading towards more stable days having just experienced a short parenthesis in a market that is generally moving towards a healthy recovery and in that respect they maintain their bullish views and appetite for candidates offered at levels in line with current freight rates.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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