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Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in combination with the deadly dam accident in Brazil earlier this year. The latter is a serious disruption that has already had an immediate negative impact on Capesize earnings. Brazil is the world’s second largest iron ore producer country after Australia, with approx. 70% of exports going to East Asia, and most iron ore consists of the highest quality found worldwide that does not require much processing. In addition, other production sites in Brazil are now in the public eye and currently under scrutiny when it comes down to their procedures, safety protocols and infrastructure and might not be able to increase production as desired. Hence, the imminent decrease of Brazil’s output will definitely reduce ton-mile revenue for Capes. The question now is if China is able to, and if they will respond with an increase of their domestic production from their high-cost mines, which will furthermore keep Cape revenues from rebounding to previous higher observed levels.
Besides the Capesize segment, the sudden drop and the swift reversal of sentiment was observed across all major trading routes and all ship sizes. This could be due to the turbulence deriving from the US-China trade war. While many reports/forecasts have been published and a lot of opinions have been heard, the only sure thing is that it adds uncertainty to the an already worrying global economy and a puzzled (amid coming regulations) shipping ecosystem. In the beginning, when the second worldwide largest economy showed signals of slowing down and seemed unable to maintain growth figures, analysts were pointing to the trade war. Recently though, many are wondering if a Chinese structural and fundamental problem will soon surface. In my point of view, if such problem does exist, the shipping world should focus on how the Chinese administration would tackle it. The country’s administration is currently signaling potential further stimulus measures and several are debating if such a program will have a positive impact on seaborne trade and to what degree.
The very slow fresh cargo supply of the past couple of months resulted in a slowdown of SnP activity, which is down 33% ytd. However, from the start of last week a more normal flow of cargo is observed and the BDI showed signs of recovering. At the same time, comparing past week’s SnP market to the start of this month we noted fresh prospective buyers coming on-board ships, while proven buyers took the opportunity to test sellers with levels depicting current market conditions and establishing new market levels.
Whilst some owners worry that we are entering a global bear market and are skeptical if this downturn was an indicator of a more structural issue, the BDI is now on a positive trend and others believe that we are heading towards more stable days having just experienced a short parenthesis in a market that is generally moving towards a healthy recovery and in that respect they maintain their bullish views and appetite for candidates offered at levels in line with current freight rates.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
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