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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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