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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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