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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of scrubbers and the benefits of alternative fuel usage. Aside from all of these, there is another reading to this new regulation. New oil products (ultra-low sulphur fuel oil) as well as the much larger quantities of MGO that will be needed from the shipping industry will reshape trade patterns around the globe. The first effect could well be depicted in crude oil trade due to shifts in refinery utilization, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping in Allied latest weekly research report.
Specifically, demand for light sweet crude oil will move upward as it will be required from the non-upgraded refineries, while it is possible to see a negative trend in the demand for heavy sour grades. The second part is the need for redistribution of the low-sulphur fuels, in order to properly cover the global bunkering markets.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, a side-effect to this could well be the requirement for floating storage for both clean (building of inventories), as well as dirty products (storage of the excess heavy fuel oil produced). Demand for HSFO is projected to recover in the long-term, as scrubber-equipped ships will continue using it. However, given that the IMO expects around 3,800 vessels to be fitted with scrubbers by 2020, it looks as though these vessels will remain a relatively small percentage of the global fleet. Many refineries have proceeded with their investment plans, adding capacity in order to produce more middle distillates, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that an additional 7 million barrels per day will come into production by 2023.
However, Yiannis Vamvakas says, there are also several refineries that have not yet fully prepared for the IMO 2020 regulation, possible creating a shortfall of the required fuels in certain regions. All in all, the most modernized refineries with extensive vacuum resid processing capacity will benefit most from the new regulation, as they will be able to produce larger quantities of required fuels, gaining market share in the marine sector. Based on these facts, demand will increase in regions were the more modern refineries reside, modifying current trade routes. According to a Reuters survey, around 66% of 33 questioned refineries will continue produce HSFO in 2020, but 70% of these stated that they will reduce their output. A decline has already been reported in fuel oil inventories, depicting the fact that refineries have started to cut output in anticipation of the regulation. However, it’s worth mentioning that if output cuts prove to be bigger than the consumption fall, prices will see a significant upsurge. With regards to different geographical locations, most of the US refineries have been upgraded by the US shale boom, giving them a head start, but they are still dependent on heavy fuel imports, which is used for blending purposes. This means that further investments will be required for adding de-sulphurisation capacity.
In Europe, the report says, the coastal refineries are better prepared compared to their mainland peers, as their main oil source is crude from North and West Africa, regions with less sour oil. In Middle East and China, most of the refineries do not have the capacity of de-sulphurisation needed to produce the new low-sulphur fuels, making new investments necessary. In almost all cases a significant change is to take place in the shipping industry.
This change can be seen as a threat, an opportunity or as a combination of these two. The modification of crude oil/oil products trade flows should benefit owners and refineries that are flexible and adaptable enough for the new regulations, while it may be a significant threat for market participants that will choose to fall behind their competition Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in his latest report.
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Tuesday, 25 December 18
FUEL QUALITY AND SAFETY IN IMO CONVENTIONS: A GROWING CHALLENGE, EVEN PRIOR TO 1 JANUARY 2020 - IUMI
At the 100th session of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) meeting discussions on fuel quality a ...
Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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