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Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an extended period of oversupply. Things haven’t played out quite like that, and prices have staged a strong recovery.
The market may not be out of the woods yet, as supply builds up next year potentially putting some downward pressure on prices. But the outlook beyond is bullish, with 65 mmtpa of new supply needed to meet growing demand by 2025 – that’s 20 mmtpa more than we forecast a year ago.
How have things turned round so quickly?
Demand has been firmer. Low prices drew buyers into the market after Asian LNG prices fell 75% from the 2013 peak of US$17/mmbtu to US$4/mmbtu by 2016. China began a buying spree that hasn’t stopped, spurred by the Government’s initiative to improve air quality in its cities. The Paris Agreement of 2015 has hardened energy policy – European governments are accelerating a shift away from coal to the benefit of renewables as well as gas. A new and diverse breed of countries has joined the traditional LNG buyers, among them Pakistan, Bangladesh, Colombia, Jamaica and Panama. LNG has gone global in the downturn.
Europe emerges as key growth target for LNG suppliers
Delayed production startup at some new LNG projects has also diminished the feared oversupply. Future gas supply in Europe will be structurally reduced by the decline of Groningen. The Dutch field, a pillar of continental supply for over 50 years, is beset by earthquakes. Volumes will be cut to minimal levels in the early 2020s and cease in 2030. With Russian pipelines maxed out, even with modest demand growth Europe has emerged as a key growth target for LNG suppliers. The loss of Groningen alone accounts for half of the 20 mmtpa increase in our forecast 2025 supply gap.
As global LNG players gather in Barcelona for the big Gastech Conference September 17-20, things look brighter. Yet major challenges lie ahead for the industry, these three among them.
1. Bringing competitive new supply to market
Projects are jockeying for position including Mozambique Areas 1 (Anadarko) and 4 (Eni/ExxonMobil), Arctic LNG 2 (NOVATEK/Total), LNG Canada (Shell/Petronas), Qatar expansions (Qatargas) and a plethora of US sites. 2019 may be the biggest year ever for LNG project sanctions; 100 mmtpa of new capacity could reach FID in the next three years.
Project delivery and managing spend of up to US$200bn will be big tests following the difficulties of the last cycle. And with buyers unwilling to commit to long term contracts for all their needs, sellers have to take on more risk. The ‘new economics’ of LNG projects favours big, financially strong players – large resource holders, major portfolio players and, possibly, traders.
2. The inexorable rise of US supply democratising the LNG market
A fringe player a few years ago, US LNG will vie with Qatar to be the world’s biggest supplier by the mid-2020s. Cheap Permian and Marcellus gas create a competitive advantage versus many conventional projects. Some LNG contracts are already marketed as distinctly Henry Hub, influencing oil-linked LNG pricing. In time a quarter of all cargoes on the high seas will be Henry Hub-derived, FOB with no destination clauses. This will dramatically increase liquidity in LNG trading and the effect on global LNG pricing will be profound.
Gas hubs in the US and Europe have evolved over the decades to accommodate gas/oil competition and arbitrage between spark spreads and dark spreads. So too will Henry Hub be duly absorbed into the global pricing mix in European hubs and Asia. A global LNG marker price will emerge with Henry Hub a key determinant.
3. The need for sustained gas advocacy
Gas is presently winning market share from coal. But intensifying policy on energy efficiency, methane and carbon emissions, the growth of renewables, development of battery storage and new energy technologies all pose a threat. Gas cannot rest on its laurels as a bridging fuel for the energy transition. The industry needs to keep pressing the case for gas as the low carbon intensity option, and continue to build new markets by ensuring security of supply at a competitive cost.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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