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Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an extended period of oversupply. Things haven’t played out quite like that, and prices have staged a strong recovery.
The market may not be out of the woods yet, as supply builds up next year potentially putting some downward pressure on prices. But the outlook beyond is bullish, with 65 mmtpa of new supply needed to meet growing demand by 2025 – that’s 20 mmtpa more than we forecast a year ago.
How have things turned round so quickly?
Demand has been firmer. Low prices drew buyers into the market after Asian LNG prices fell 75% from the 2013 peak of US$17/mmbtu to US$4/mmbtu by 2016. China began a buying spree that hasn’t stopped, spurred by the Government’s initiative to improve air quality in its cities. The Paris Agreement of 2015 has hardened energy policy – European governments are accelerating a shift away from coal to the benefit of renewables as well as gas. A new and diverse breed of countries has joined the traditional LNG buyers, among them Pakistan, Bangladesh, Colombia, Jamaica and Panama. LNG has gone global in the downturn.
Europe emerges as key growth target for LNG suppliers
Delayed production startup at some new LNG projects has also diminished the feared oversupply. Future gas supply in Europe will be structurally reduced by the decline of Groningen. The Dutch field, a pillar of continental supply for over 50 years, is beset by earthquakes. Volumes will be cut to minimal levels in the early 2020s and cease in 2030. With Russian pipelines maxed out, even with modest demand growth Europe has emerged as a key growth target for LNG suppliers. The loss of Groningen alone accounts for half of the 20 mmtpa increase in our forecast 2025 supply gap.
As global LNG players gather in Barcelona for the big Gastech Conference September 17-20, things look brighter. Yet major challenges lie ahead for the industry, these three among them.
1. Bringing competitive new supply to market
Projects are jockeying for position including Mozambique Areas 1 (Anadarko) and 4 (Eni/ExxonMobil), Arctic LNG 2 (NOVATEK/Total), LNG Canada (Shell/Petronas), Qatar expansions (Qatargas) and a plethora of US sites. 2019 may be the biggest year ever for LNG project sanctions; 100 mmtpa of new capacity could reach FID in the next three years.
Project delivery and managing spend of up to US$200bn will be big tests following the difficulties of the last cycle. And with buyers unwilling to commit to long term contracts for all their needs, sellers have to take on more risk. The ‘new economics’ of LNG projects favours big, financially strong players – large resource holders, major portfolio players and, possibly, traders.
2. The inexorable rise of US supply democratising the LNG market
A fringe player a few years ago, US LNG will vie with Qatar to be the world’s biggest supplier by the mid-2020s. Cheap Permian and Marcellus gas create a competitive advantage versus many conventional projects. Some LNG contracts are already marketed as distinctly Henry Hub, influencing oil-linked LNG pricing. In time a quarter of all cargoes on the high seas will be Henry Hub-derived, FOB with no destination clauses. This will dramatically increase liquidity in LNG trading and the effect on global LNG pricing will be profound.
Gas hubs in the US and Europe have evolved over the decades to accommodate gas/oil competition and arbitrage between spark spreads and dark spreads. So too will Henry Hub be duly absorbed into the global pricing mix in European hubs and Asia. A global LNG marker price will emerge with Henry Hub a key determinant.
3. The need for sustained gas advocacy
Gas is presently winning market share from coal. But intensifying policy on energy efficiency, methane and carbon emissions, the growth of renewables, development of battery storage and new energy technologies all pose a threat. Gas cannot rest on its laurels as a bridging fuel for the energy transition. The industry needs to keep pressing the case for gas as the low carbon intensity option, and continue to build new markets by ensuring security of supply at a competitive cost.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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