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Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
 Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Ratings says.
Market expectations of oversupply and weak gas prices have curtailed new investment activity in the sector in the past two years. Limited capacity additions beyond 2020 should be positive for spot prices, especially in Asia and Europe. This will benefit LNG projects with significant uncontracted volumes and those linked to gas spot prices.
An unprecedented wave of new projects becoming operational in 2016-2019 has not resulted in, and is unlikely to result in a material surplus in the LNG market in the medium term. Additional LNG volumes continue to find a home across a diverse array of countries and new buyers, and under more flexible contracts.
Funding for new LNG capacity is often structured as non-recourse project finance and is dependent on sponsors’ ability to secure long-term offtake agreements, which buyers have been less willing to sign in anticipation of larger volumes of uncontracted LNG coming to the market. Therefore, sponsors may need to commit a higher equity contribution to get funding for LNG projects, which will continue to delay final investment decisions (FIDs) for some time. A typical timeframe for a new LNG project to become operational following the FID is four to five years. Due to limited new FIDs very few new projects will come on stream in the early 2020s. FIDs in the next one to two years are likely to be limited to projects with lower capital and operating costs given constraints on the funding side.
We expect gas demand to continue its robust growth in the coming years, mostly driven by Asian markets that account for two-thirds of overall LNG demand. This is due a combination of healthy power demand growth in the region, natural gas being the fossil fuel of choice in pursuit of curbing air pollution, and the backlash against nuclear energy. Japan is currently the largest LNG importer, but China is catching up quickly and becoming the major market for LNG.
The LNG market could shift into deficit by 2022-2025. Gas pricing is therefore likely to improve in the major importer markets, benefiting LNG projects relying on spot and hub pricing and entities with significant LNG trading portfolios. We also expect oil companies to gradually return to their earlier LNG ambitions. This includes oil majors, like Shell, BP and Total, most of which emphasise the growing role of gas in the global energy mix.
The LNG market is still in its formative stage. Pricing mechanisms, contract terms and financing structures continue to evolve. Long-term oil-linked contracts are giving way to increased trading activity, which represented around a quarter of all new contracts in 2017, according to IGU World Gas LNG Report, compared to just 1% in 2012. New large LNG projects still rely on long-term contracts in order to secure financing. However, elsewhere contracts are becoming shorter, and the quality of counterparties is declining. Contract prices are increasingly de-linked from oil pricing with a growing focus on spot and hub-based gas pricing.
Fitch-rated rated LNG projects will not be significantly affected by the trend towards increasing commoditisation. In the US, rated projects, such as Cameron LNG and Sabine Pass, benefit from robust contractual frameworks that provide mitigation to completion risks and often employ tolling or tolling-like arrangements that protect cash flows from volume and price risks. RasGas in Qatar mostly relies on long-term oil-linked contracts.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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