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Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
 Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Ratings says.
Market expectations of oversupply and weak gas prices have curtailed new investment activity in the sector in the past two years. Limited capacity additions beyond 2020 should be positive for spot prices, especially in Asia and Europe. This will benefit LNG projects with significant uncontracted volumes and those linked to gas spot prices.
An unprecedented wave of new projects becoming operational in 2016-2019 has not resulted in, and is unlikely to result in a material surplus in the LNG market in the medium term. Additional LNG volumes continue to find a home across a diverse array of countries and new buyers, and under more flexible contracts.
Funding for new LNG capacity is often structured as non-recourse project finance and is dependent on sponsors’ ability to secure long-term offtake agreements, which buyers have been less willing to sign in anticipation of larger volumes of uncontracted LNG coming to the market. Therefore, sponsors may need to commit a higher equity contribution to get funding for LNG projects, which will continue to delay final investment decisions (FIDs) for some time. A typical timeframe for a new LNG project to become operational following the FID is four to five years. Due to limited new FIDs very few new projects will come on stream in the early 2020s. FIDs in the next one to two years are likely to be limited to projects with lower capital and operating costs given constraints on the funding side.
We expect gas demand to continue its robust growth in the coming years, mostly driven by Asian markets that account for two-thirds of overall LNG demand. This is due a combination of healthy power demand growth in the region, natural gas being the fossil fuel of choice in pursuit of curbing air pollution, and the backlash against nuclear energy. Japan is currently the largest LNG importer, but China is catching up quickly and becoming the major market for LNG.
The LNG market could shift into deficit by 2022-2025. Gas pricing is therefore likely to improve in the major importer markets, benefiting LNG projects relying on spot and hub pricing and entities with significant LNG trading portfolios. We also expect oil companies to gradually return to their earlier LNG ambitions. This includes oil majors, like Shell, BP and Total, most of which emphasise the growing role of gas in the global energy mix.
The LNG market is still in its formative stage. Pricing mechanisms, contract terms and financing structures continue to evolve. Long-term oil-linked contracts are giving way to increased trading activity, which represented around a quarter of all new contracts in 2017, according to IGU World Gas LNG Report, compared to just 1% in 2012. New large LNG projects still rely on long-term contracts in order to secure financing. However, elsewhere contracts are becoming shorter, and the quality of counterparties is declining. Contract prices are increasingly de-linked from oil pricing with a growing focus on spot and hub-based gas pricing.
Fitch-rated rated LNG projects will not be significantly affected by the trend towards increasing commoditisation. In the US, rated projects, such as Cameron LNG and Sabine Pass, benefit from robust contractual frameworks that provide mitigation to completion risks and often employ tolling or tolling-like arrangements that protect cash flows from volume and price risks. RasGas in Qatar mostly relies on long-term oil-linked contracts.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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