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Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
 Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Ratings says.
Market expectations of oversupply and weak gas prices have curtailed new investment activity in the sector in the past two years. Limited capacity additions beyond 2020 should be positive for spot prices, especially in Asia and Europe. This will benefit LNG projects with significant uncontracted volumes and those linked to gas spot prices.
An unprecedented wave of new projects becoming operational in 2016-2019 has not resulted in, and is unlikely to result in a material surplus in the LNG market in the medium term. Additional LNG volumes continue to find a home across a diverse array of countries and new buyers, and under more flexible contracts.
Funding for new LNG capacity is often structured as non-recourse project finance and is dependent on sponsors’ ability to secure long-term offtake agreements, which buyers have been less willing to sign in anticipation of larger volumes of uncontracted LNG coming to the market. Therefore, sponsors may need to commit a higher equity contribution to get funding for LNG projects, which will continue to delay final investment decisions (FIDs) for some time. A typical timeframe for a new LNG project to become operational following the FID is four to five years. Due to limited new FIDs very few new projects will come on stream in the early 2020s. FIDs in the next one to two years are likely to be limited to projects with lower capital and operating costs given constraints on the funding side.
We expect gas demand to continue its robust growth in the coming years, mostly driven by Asian markets that account for two-thirds of overall LNG demand. This is due a combination of healthy power demand growth in the region, natural gas being the fossil fuel of choice in pursuit of curbing air pollution, and the backlash against nuclear energy. Japan is currently the largest LNG importer, but China is catching up quickly and becoming the major market for LNG.
The LNG market could shift into deficit by 2022-2025. Gas pricing is therefore likely to improve in the major importer markets, benefiting LNG projects relying on spot and hub pricing and entities with significant LNG trading portfolios. We also expect oil companies to gradually return to their earlier LNG ambitions. This includes oil majors, like Shell, BP and Total, most of which emphasise the growing role of gas in the global energy mix.
The LNG market is still in its formative stage. Pricing mechanisms, contract terms and financing structures continue to evolve. Long-term oil-linked contracts are giving way to increased trading activity, which represented around a quarter of all new contracts in 2017, according to IGU World Gas LNG Report, compared to just 1% in 2012. New large LNG projects still rely on long-term contracts in order to secure financing. However, elsewhere contracts are becoming shorter, and the quality of counterparties is declining. Contract prices are increasingly de-linked from oil pricing with a growing focus on spot and hub-based gas pricing.
Fitch-rated rated LNG projects will not be significantly affected by the trend towards increasing commoditisation. In the US, rated projects, such as Cameron LNG and Sabine Pass, benefit from robust contractual frameworks that provide mitigation to completion risks and often employ tolling or tolling-like arrangements that protect cash flows from volume and price risks. RasGas in Qatar mostly relies on long-term oil-linked contracts.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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