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Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
NAB LogoCoal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in its latest Mineral & Energy outlook. 
 
NAB further sais, Hard coking coal prices rose above US$200 a tonne in mid- June (due to port and rail maintenance issues), while thermal coal prices pushed above US$110 a tonne (the highest level since early 2012). Spot prices for thermal coal may become increasingly important – given the breakdown of the traditional Japanese financial year contract mechanism, with Tohoku Electric Power Co pulling out of negotiations with miner Glencore (the two parties who negotiate the agreement).  
 
According to NAB economists, Asia is the key region for seaborne coal demand – with China, India, Japan and South Korea accounting for almost 60% of global imports in 2017. The growth potential of the latter two is somewhat limited longer term (given the mature nature of their economies), while rapidly growing India is increasing its domestic supply, aiming to develop self-sufficiency in coal supply.
 
China’s coal import trends have been mixed in 2018. NAB noted that, in the first five months, imports of metallurgical coal fell sharply – down 25% to 22.6 million tonnes, while thermal coal imports rose by 20% to 97.4 million tonnes. In a large part the latter reflected a particularly cold winter (boosting demand across January through March) and poor availability of natural gas.
 
Short term supply issues have impacted coal markets in recent years – particularly hard coking coal exports from Queensland. A dispute between the privately owned rail operator and the Queensland Competition Authority regarding its regulated maximum allowable revenue between 2017 and 2021 could limit the state’s coal exports in coming years – adding some upside risk to our price forecasts, the report says.
 
Australia’s total coal exports have increased strongly in the first four months of 2018 – albeit this reflects the recovery from Tropical Cyclone Debbie that severely disrupted metallurgical coal exports in April 2017. Thermal coal volumes rose by 0.8% yoy to 64.8 million tonnes, while metallurgical coal exports rose by 13% yoy to 55.6 million tonnes. That said, metallurgical coal exports remain well below the levels recorded in the first four months of 2014 through 2016. 
 
Coal prices are expected to ease from current levels – as a softening China’s steel sector reduces coking coal demand and supply side concerns ease. We expect hard coking coal prices to average US$186 a tonne in 2018, a decrease of almost 15% (reflecting impact of supply shortfalls in 2017). In contrast, average thermal coal prices are forecast  to increase by 12% to US$98 a tonne, the report says.


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Recent News

Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...


Thursday, 02 August 18
INDO / CHINA COAL RV'S IS PAYING AROUND USD 11,000 TO SUPRAS BSS DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize The counter seasonally strong market during the summer months bodes well for the remainder of the year.    According ...


Wednesday, 01 August 18
JOKOWI CANCELS PLAN TO REVOKE COAL DMO - JP
President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo on Tuesday has canceled the government’s plan to revoke the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coa ...


Wednesday, 01 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The dry bulk market activity over the past four weeks has remained stable when compared to the previous months. There are concerns with regards to ...


Tuesday, 31 July 18
INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO CHANGE COAL SUPPLY, PRICING RULES UNTIL 2019 - REUTERS
Indonesia is unlikely to change its rules on domestic coal supply and pricing until 2019, Coordinating Maritime Minister Luhut Pandjaitan said on M ...


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