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Wednesday, 30 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
 Among several hot topics that will be discussed during the Posidonia week, the International Maritime Organization regulation that will be enforced on Jan 2020 and calls for ships to reduce the maximum sulphur content of their fuels to 0.5 percent, will definitely be on the spotlight. The fuel discussion becomes even more interesting following the recent oil rally that drove global benchmark Brent to the highest level late 2014, near 80usd last week before settling back to around 75usd. According to Morgan Stanley’s latest report, besides key fundamentals and political externalities, oil prices will be severely impacted as new international shipping regulations takes effect, overhauling the types of fuels produced by refiners, and will push Brent crude reaching $90 a barrel by 2020. An increase in demand of low sulphur fuels will hike demand of middle distillate products (diesel and marine gasoil), that will result a significant need for more crude; this will drive crack spreads higher and will boost oil prices. Consequently, several hybrid fuels (Ultra low sulphur Fuel oils) will be marketed by refineries and traders; however they have several red flags (compatibility issues among others). Hence, it seems very unlikely that refiners, traders and bunker suppliers will manage to market a "one spec fits all" low sulphur fuel oil product. This will create an oversupply of high sulphur fuel oil that is expected to put pressure on refineries to produce more distillate fuels.
Data from the report suggests that middle distillate markets are already pretty tight in matters of supply; i.e. diesel and gasoil stockpiles in key storage hubs in Europe, the U.S. and Asia are currently below their 5-yr seasonal averages. At the same time, demand for these distillates is growing annually by 600k barrels/day since 2011, accelerating to 800,000 barrels/day in recent quarters. According to recent studies, the IMO regulation is expected to boost demand by an additional 1.5 million barrels/day by 2020, which should boost crude prices. While global crude production will most likely rise, it probably won’t increase by the 5.7 million barrels/day needed by 2020 to meet the additional demand for fuels. Since current fundamentals as well as the IMO regulation impact point to higher bunker prices, speed & consumptions of ships are once again on the spotlight. Consequently, the instalment (or not) of scrubbers is already a big debate among owners and charterers. If the above analysis is proven correct, and a sudden increase in demand of middle distillates is combined with tight distillate product supply as well as high crude oil prices and an oversupply of high sulphur fuel oil, then the price differential between low sulphur marine gasoil and high sulphur fuel oil will be definitely significant. The question is how long will a large price gap exist for and if it will suffice for the payback of the initial investment cost to install a scrubber. In other words, will this price differential incentivize refiners to invest in high cost cocker installations and upgrade their current infrastructure and how long will this process take.
Amid the high cost of bunkers post 2020, charterers will most likely request owners to slow steam; whereas ships with scrubbers will enjoy the flexibility and maximize ton-mile revenue. Similarly, if the majority of the fleet is slow steaming, and in combination with a possible increase of scrapping tonnage that can’t adapt on the new environmental regulations, we see less vessels competing over cargos; that will probably drive the market upwards. All in all, although the advantages of installing scrubbers especially on thirsty ships are clear, we see only a few owners and newbuilding orders that include scrubbers on board, with the vast majority of orders being “scrubber ready”. Our feeling is that due to current market condition, most owners adopt a “wait and see approach” and currently hold their horses.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2018 marks quite a few milestones for Greek Shipping. No need to detail again the greatness of Greek Shipping or the singular position that Greek s ...
Monday, 11 June 18
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES HIT 6-YEAR HIGH AS ASIA DEMAND SPIKES - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have risen to their highest level since 2012 as hot weather across North Asia spurs buying ahead of the peak summer ...
Monday, 11 June 18
ANALYSING A NEW AGE OF AUTONOMOUS VESSELS - IMO
The International Maritime Organization answers the questions of Government Europa on how the next generation of autonomous vessels can be regulate ...
Friday, 08 June 18
AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES SURGE AS ASIA DEMAND HEATS UP - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit their highest level since late 2016 as the market heats up on strong demand across North Asia and China in ...
Wednesday, 06 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
As observed last month the price of oil hit its highest level since November 2014 reaching $80 per barrel. Global oil demand growth for 2018 was sl ...
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Showing 1701 to 1705 news of total 6871 |
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- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
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