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Wednesday, 30 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
 Among several hot topics that will be discussed during the Posidonia week, the International Maritime Organization regulation that will be enforced on Jan 2020 and calls for ships to reduce the maximum sulphur content of their fuels to 0.5 percent, will definitely be on the spotlight. The fuel discussion becomes even more interesting following the recent oil rally that drove global benchmark Brent to the highest level late 2014, near 80usd last week before settling back to around 75usd. According to Morgan Stanley’s latest report, besides key fundamentals and political externalities, oil prices will be severely impacted as new international shipping regulations takes effect, overhauling the types of fuels produced by refiners, and will push Brent crude reaching $90 a barrel by 2020. An increase in demand of low sulphur fuels will hike demand of middle distillate products (diesel and marine gasoil), that will result a significant need for more crude; this will drive crack spreads higher and will boost oil prices. Consequently, several hybrid fuels (Ultra low sulphur Fuel oils) will be marketed by refineries and traders; however they have several red flags (compatibility issues among others). Hence, it seems very unlikely that refiners, traders and bunker suppliers will manage to market a "one spec fits all" low sulphur fuel oil product. This will create an oversupply of high sulphur fuel oil that is expected to put pressure on refineries to produce more distillate fuels.
Data from the report suggests that middle distillate markets are already pretty tight in matters of supply; i.e. diesel and gasoil stockpiles in key storage hubs in Europe, the U.S. and Asia are currently below their 5-yr seasonal averages. At the same time, demand for these distillates is growing annually by 600k barrels/day since 2011, accelerating to 800,000 barrels/day in recent quarters. According to recent studies, the IMO regulation is expected to boost demand by an additional 1.5 million barrels/day by 2020, which should boost crude prices. While global crude production will most likely rise, it probably won’t increase by the 5.7 million barrels/day needed by 2020 to meet the additional demand for fuels. Since current fundamentals as well as the IMO regulation impact point to higher bunker prices, speed & consumptions of ships are once again on the spotlight. Consequently, the instalment (or not) of scrubbers is already a big debate among owners and charterers. If the above analysis is proven correct, and a sudden increase in demand of middle distillates is combined with tight distillate product supply as well as high crude oil prices and an oversupply of high sulphur fuel oil, then the price differential between low sulphur marine gasoil and high sulphur fuel oil will be definitely significant. The question is how long will a large price gap exist for and if it will suffice for the payback of the initial investment cost to install a scrubber. In other words, will this price differential incentivize refiners to invest in high cost cocker installations and upgrade their current infrastructure and how long will this process take.
Amid the high cost of bunkers post 2020, charterers will most likely request owners to slow steam; whereas ships with scrubbers will enjoy the flexibility and maximize ton-mile revenue. Similarly, if the majority of the fleet is slow steaming, and in combination with a possible increase of scrapping tonnage that can’t adapt on the new environmental regulations, we see less vessels competing over cargos; that will probably drive the market upwards. All in all, although the advantages of installing scrubbers especially on thirsty ships are clear, we see only a few owners and newbuilding orders that include scrubbers on board, with the vast majority of orders being “scrubber ready”. Our feeling is that due to current market condition, most owners adopt a “wait and see approach” and currently hold their horses.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 21 June 18
ROBUST ASIAN THERMAL COAL DEMAND CREATES OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Minerals Council of Australia reported, Australia’s world-class coal mining industry can create more jobs in Australia and strengthen t ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
CHINESE REDUCED COAL IMPORT RESTRICTIONS - CAIXIN GLOBAL
Caixin Global reported that the Chinese government has reduced restrictions on coal imports at the nation’s major ports in response to concer ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADMITS COAL SHORTAGE, ASKS DISCOMS TO IMPORT - TIMES OF INDIA
Times of India reported that the power ministry has advised all state governments and private power distribution companies to import coal as Coal I ...
Tuesday, 19 June 18
WCA RESPONDS TO BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY 2018
Responding to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, Benjamin Sporton, Chief Executive of the World Coal Association (WCA) said, &ldqu ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 2% TO 756 MILLION SHORT TONS MMST IN 2018 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production to decline by 2% to 756 million short tons (MMst) in 2018.
According to EIA's Short-Term Ener ...
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Showing 1696 to 1700 news of total 6871 |
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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