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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 February 18
COAL BUYERS SPOOKED BY INDONESIA'S NEW SHIPPING RULES - ASSOC
Buyers of Indonesian coal are holding back orders of the fuel after the government issued new shipping rules for coal and crude palm oil that would ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA LIMITED HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS - UNION MINISTER OF RAILWAYS AND COAL
According to press release from PIB, as per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to impo ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
A NEW WEEK WITH A SOFT SENTIMENT AND DECREASING RATES IN BOTH HEMISPHERE FOR THE PANAMAXES, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG dropping remarkably due to lack of fresh enquiry both for fhaul and bhaul, Supras were fixed from USG to Spore-Japan range now aroun ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO HIT THIRTEEN-MONTH HIGH OF $100.69 A TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) rose 5.39 per cent in February 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure ...
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Showing 1811 to 1815 news of total 6871 |
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- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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