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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
The second month of the year is traditionally a particularly interesting one for the shipping industry as a whole and even more importantly for the ...
Monday, 12 February 18
PANAMAX: WITH LIMITED FRESH ENQUIRY IN ALL AREAS, SPOT MARKET RATES DRIFTED LOWER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A switch to the Atlantic with rates firming as charterers seemed keen to fix and tonnage was tight, prompting a recovery in rates. Trans ...
Monday, 12 February 18
WORLDWIDE: 'DEMURRAGE CLAIMS' FOR THE PURPOSES OF DOCUMENTARY TIME BARS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 2 February 2018 the Commercial Court allowed an appeal from a decision of the Arbitration Tribunal in Lukoil Asia Paci ...
Saturday, 10 February 18
COAL INDIA ON PATH OF SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION GROWTH AND SUPPLY TO POWER AND NON POWER SECTOR - PIB
Supply of 371.8 MT of Coal to Power Sector and 103.1 MT Coal to Non-Power Sector Achieved in 2017-18 Till January,2018 Average Rake Loading To The ...
Saturday, 10 February 18
OIL PRICE USD 100/BARREL BY END OF 2018! - SAROJ MOHAPATRA
All demand supplies calculations are going wrong in oil market at present. US production is increasing at a good pace and set to topple Saudi comfo ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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