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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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