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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Thursday, 05 April 18
INDONESIA TO POSTPONE NEW COAL, PALM OIL SHIPPING RULES TO 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesia will delay until 2020 trade rules requiring exporters of coal and crude palm oil to use only Indonesian-flagged vessels, government offic ...
Tuesday, 03 April 18
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
In the midst of a relatively quiet week for markets, with disruptions being caused by the Christian holidays, it seems as though we find ourselves ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT, SAYS VISTAAR
The freight market softening to continue. Thursday, March 29, 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 42 points, reaching 1080 points.
T ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS TO DELIVER $150M SENAKIN CONTRACT EXTENSION
Thiess has secured a $150 million contract extension to provide mine services at Arutmin’s Senakin coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS SECURES $240M SATUI EXTENSION
The successful implementation of an innovative mining plan by Thiess at the Satui coal mine in South Kalimantan, has resulted in a $240 million con ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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