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Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the International Energy Agency, the US will overtake Russia as the world’s #1 crude oil producer by next year, having surpassed 10m bpd in late 2017 and slated to surpass 11m bpd by the end of 2018.
Over the past two years US shale oil companies have managed to become more efficient, optimizing production processes and utilizing new technologies and practices at lower costs. This is attributed in part to technological breakthroughs on the drilling side; Break-even points for US production have been driven substantially downward. It remains to be seen if this increase will be sustainable but at this point most pundits do not see production peaking before 2020.
The booming production has of course unnerved other producers and oil markets globally and comes at a time when other producers have voluntarily capped their own production in order to prop up prices. During 2017, we witnessed the spike in prices due to OPEC production cuts with prices steadily correcting upwards since November 2016. Oil is currently trading in the low $60s, after peaking at a 3-year high of ~$66pb.
OPEC and its allied producers are seeing their market shares eroded by the increasing US production. At the same time, US oil imports are also dropping, further shrinking profits from OPEC established markets. With this in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the commodity price will fare under these new conditions.
US shale production will be extremely important to watch over the next 5 years. It is almost certain that production will continue to grow in the next years. However, a number of factors will determine if this growth will be sustainable long term and how the market will balance itself under a future -potentially different- status quo.
On the tanker side a growing US production is good news as exports from the country could be offering more and more support to rates in the future as apart from Europe and Latin America, the long haul trips to the Far East and particularly to China is gaining increasing momentum. Thomson Reuters data reveals that US shipments specifically to China that were non-existent prior to 2016 have now reached a new record of around 2.01 million metric tonnes or 474,450 barrels/day during last month. Sinopec, the biggest oil refiner in China, expects to import 10 million metric tonnes of crude oil from the US during 2018. As the production cap from OPEC and Russia continues, the fairly new and quickly increasing flow of the commodity from the US to S. Korea, Japan and China is definitely something to watch out for.
Additionally as a growing US production will almost certainly keep undermining OPECs efforts to boost oil prices, this means that the price of the commodity will keep moving – at least for the short to medium term- within a specific range that is still considered attractive for consuming countries maybe not compared to early 2016 levels but certainly when compared to mid-2014 levels of around $ 100/barrel.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 02 March 18
ANGLO AMERICAN COMPLETES SALE OF ESKOM-TIED THERMAL COAL OPERATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA
Anglo American plc (“Anglo American”) confirms completion of the sale of its Eskom-tied domestic thermal coal operations in South Afric ...
Friday, 02 March 18
MORE COAL INQUIRES FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO INDIA; SUPRAS FIXED CA $12K + BB - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Better rates in Atlantic, but not too busy market just yet.
Black Sea catched improving rates for grain cargoes, where supras to Eg ...
Friday, 02 March 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7 PER CENT W/E 24 FEB, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
INDIA: TEPID COAL TRAFFIC TO HIT VOLUME GROWTH AT PORTS TILL 2022 - PTI
Cargo growth at the country’s major ports is all set to moderate to 3-5 per cent per annum over the next five years due to the “sedate ...
Tuesday, 27 February 18
SHELL SEES POTENTIAL LNG SUPPLY SHORTAGE AS GLOBAL DEMAND SURGES
Media Release: The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has continued to defy expectations of many market observers, with demand growing by 29 ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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