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Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the International Energy Agency, the US will overtake Russia as the world’s #1 crude oil producer by next year, having surpassed 10m bpd in late 2017 and slated to surpass 11m bpd by the end of 2018.
Over the past two years US shale oil companies have managed to become more efficient, optimizing production processes and utilizing new technologies and practices at lower costs. This is attributed in part to technological breakthroughs on the drilling side; Break-even points for US production have been driven substantially downward. It remains to be seen if this increase will be sustainable but at this point most pundits do not see production peaking before 2020.
The booming production has of course unnerved other producers and oil markets globally and comes at a time when other producers have voluntarily capped their own production in order to prop up prices. During 2017, we witnessed the spike in prices due to OPEC production cuts with prices steadily correcting upwards since November 2016. Oil is currently trading in the low $60s, after peaking at a 3-year high of ~$66pb.
OPEC and its allied producers are seeing their market shares eroded by the increasing US production. At the same time, US oil imports are also dropping, further shrinking profits from OPEC established markets. With this in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the commodity price will fare under these new conditions.
US shale production will be extremely important to watch over the next 5 years. It is almost certain that production will continue to grow in the next years. However, a number of factors will determine if this growth will be sustainable long term and how the market will balance itself under a future -potentially different- status quo.
On the tanker side a growing US production is good news as exports from the country could be offering more and more support to rates in the future as apart from Europe and Latin America, the long haul trips to the Far East and particularly to China is gaining increasing momentum. Thomson Reuters data reveals that US shipments specifically to China that were non-existent prior to 2016 have now reached a new record of around 2.01 million metric tonnes or 474,450 barrels/day during last month. Sinopec, the biggest oil refiner in China, expects to import 10 million metric tonnes of crude oil from the US during 2018. As the production cap from OPEC and Russia continues, the fairly new and quickly increasing flow of the commodity from the US to S. Korea, Japan and China is definitely something to watch out for.
Additionally as a growing US production will almost certainly keep undermining OPECs efforts to boost oil prices, this means that the price of the commodity will keep moving – at least for the short to medium term- within a specific range that is still considered attractive for consuming countries maybe not compared to early 2016 levels but certainly when compared to mid-2014 levels of around $ 100/barrel.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 08 March 18
AVERAGE U.S. COAL MINING PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES AS PRODUCTION FALLS - EIA
Coal mining productivity in the United States increased 26% over the past five years, reaching 6.8 tons per miner hour in 2017, up from 5.4 tons pe ...
Wednesday, 07 March 18
WHEN AN IRRESISTIBLE FORCE MEETS AN IMMOVABLE OBJECT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negotiable bills of lading are fundamental to trade. As documents of title, they are essential to the sale and carriage o ...
Wednesday, 07 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The comparably small upside Handysize asset values have noted compared to other sizes since the historical lows of the dry bulk market in combinati ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
FOREIGN INVESTORS ALLOWED TO BID FOR BIG MINING CONCESSIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has allowed foreign investors to bid for mining concessions with a total area of more than 500 hectares, while smaller areas will be ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
LNG VESSELS HAVE EMERGED AS THE FASTEST GROWING SEGMENT FOR THE WATERWAY - GERRY LATHROP
The day was July 25th 2016, a partly cloudy day on the Panama canal, and to most people a rather innocuous day without any real merit, however in s ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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