We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 10 February 18
OIL PRICE USD 100/BARREL BY END OF 2018! - SAROJ MOHAPATRA
.jpg) All demand supplies calculations are going wrong in oil market at present. US production is increasing at a good pace and set to topple Saudi comfortably as the world’s largest crude producer and to break its previous record of 10.7 Million bpd very soon, registered way back in 1970. Still the investment banks are moderating their previous estimates northwards. Recently JP Morgan estimated 2018 average oil price at USD 70 per barrel, which is approx. 50% higher than its estimates published just six months before. Goldman Sachs went one step ahead by forecasting the 2018 price at USD 80. These estimates are happening against the backdrop of known news of increased oil production from Kazakhstan and Nigeria offshore and ramp up in Libya and may be Venezuela in 2018. Also nobody expects that the winter across globe will be as cruel as in 2017.
In last article it was discussed that US, Russia, Saudi Arab have a good say in affecting the trend of oil price. They together produce appox 30 million bpd of oil against total world’s production of 80 million bpd i.e aprox 40%. Until 6-10 years before Saudi Arab was playing a pivot role in balancing the oil price as a swing producer.
As a swing supplier Saudi Arab was very much successful in limiting the price rise of crude upto good extent despite higher demand from both developed and developing economies. Now from demand side there seem to be no significant boost because of no extraordinary economic growth in China and India. Already the demands in developed countries like EU, Japan, South Korea etc except US are almost stagnant.
Now let us come to our subject line how higher oil price is the new reality in 2018. We are forgetting about a huge event that was missed in 2017 and set to happen in late 2018. It’s the world’s largest ever IPO of Saudi Aramco. For 5% disinvestment, Saudi Govt expects to earn more than USD 100 billion. Apart from income through IPO, the most important thing is the valuation of Saudia Aramco as a whole which will be calculated after IPO. US has also good existing interests in Saudi Aramco. Even investment bankers will earn directly as a stakeholder of IPO. Indirectly there is a golden opportunity to earn billions through derivative market of oil. As per recent report, hedge funds have increased their bullish position in oil, despite the fact that oil has reached the highest level of 2014. Net long positions have been raised across WTI, Brent, NYMEX, ICE, US gasoline etc. Now the ratio of hedge long position to short position has reached 11.5 against the same ratio of 1.5 in June 2017 i.e just few months back. It shows how bullish the market is but may be in hibernation show J . Last year it seems the said IPO was delayed just because the oil price was low (relative to expectation of Saudi Arab), though other reasons of no-decision of IPO subscription market place whther Newyork or london exchange were cited.
It is indeed a last opportunity in front of Saudi arab to earn billions just by selling a small stake in company. This is at a time when big economies like UK, France China have decided to go away from liquid fuel in transportation and industrial sector except petrochemicals (where refined products will be used as feed) by 2030-35. In 2008 when oil touched its peak, Saudi arab produced around 8.5 Million bpd. Lets imagine in case now Saudi Arab lowers its production to 8.5 mbpd or even lower, USD 100 per barerl is simply just a cakewalk for Oil.
Saudi Arab’s dynamic, modern-age and powerful crown prince Muhammad Bin Salman estimates the value of Saudi Aramco more than USD 2 Trillion, which is even more than GDP of almost all countries except 5 or 6. Saudi Arab may also try to disinvest more than 5% as an last attempt to have higher earnings. For that Oil need to be shown off to the outside world very bullish.
Therefore it may be concluded that Saudi Arab is in the process of cutting its oil production in a larger volume (against the official published figures) or will cut aggressively in future as against present rate just to ensure oil price is at higher side by the expected timeline of IPO i.e. Oct 2018. It also may have taken the investment bankers into confidence to ensure high over subscription of world’s largest ever IPO possible. The volume of long positions of hedge funds and money managers are probably just indication.
Just tried to put forward the thought on an idle weekend :) along with logic. Lets See what actually happens finally by dawn of 2019 :).
Saroj Mohapatra
DGM - Marketing and Contracts at H-Energy Group Of Companies
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 o ...
Wednesday, 14 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
The second month of the year is traditionally a particularly interesting one for the shipping industry as a whole and even more importantly for the ...
Monday, 12 February 18
PANAMAX: WITH LIMITED FRESH ENQUIRY IN ALL AREAS, SPOT MARKET RATES DRIFTED LOWER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A switch to the Atlantic with rates firming as charterers seemed keen to fix and tonnage was tight, prompting a recovery in rates. Trans ...
Monday, 12 February 18
WORLDWIDE: 'DEMURRAGE CLAIMS' FOR THE PURPOSES OF DOCUMENTARY TIME BARS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 2 February 2018 the Commercial Court allowed an appeal from a decision of the Arbitration Tribunal in Lukoil Asia Paci ...
Saturday, 10 February 18
COAL INDIA ON PATH OF SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION GROWTH AND SUPPLY TO POWER AND NON POWER SECTOR - PIB
Supply of 371.8 MT of Coal to Power Sector and 103.1 MT Coal to Non-Power Sector Achieved in 2017-18 Till January,2018 Average Rake Loading To The ...
|
|
|
Showing 1806 to 1810 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
|
| |
| |
|
