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Saturday, 10 February 18
OIL PRICE USD 100/BARREL BY END OF 2018! - SAROJ MOHAPATRA
.jpg) All demand supplies calculations are going wrong in oil market at present. US production is increasing at a good pace and set to topple Saudi comfortably as the world’s largest crude producer and to break its previous record of 10.7 Million bpd very soon, registered way back in 1970. Still the investment banks are moderating their previous estimates northwards. Recently JP Morgan estimated 2018 average oil price at USD 70 per barrel, which is approx. 50% higher than its estimates published just six months before. Goldman Sachs went one step ahead by forecasting the 2018 price at USD 80. These estimates are happening against the backdrop of known news of increased oil production from Kazakhstan and Nigeria offshore and ramp up in Libya and may be Venezuela in 2018. Also nobody expects that the winter across globe will be as cruel as in 2017.
In last article it was discussed that US, Russia, Saudi Arab have a good say in affecting the trend of oil price. They together produce appox 30 million bpd of oil against total world’s production of 80 million bpd i.e aprox 40%. Until 6-10 years before Saudi Arab was playing a pivot role in balancing the oil price as a swing producer.
As a swing supplier Saudi Arab was very much successful in limiting the price rise of crude upto good extent despite higher demand from both developed and developing economies. Now from demand side there seem to be no significant boost because of no extraordinary economic growth in China and India. Already the demands in developed countries like EU, Japan, South Korea etc except US are almost stagnant.
Now let us come to our subject line how higher oil price is the new reality in 2018. We are forgetting about a huge event that was missed in 2017 and set to happen in late 2018. It’s the world’s largest ever IPO of Saudi Aramco. For 5% disinvestment, Saudi Govt expects to earn more than USD 100 billion. Apart from income through IPO, the most important thing is the valuation of Saudia Aramco as a whole which will be calculated after IPO. US has also good existing interests in Saudi Aramco. Even investment bankers will earn directly as a stakeholder of IPO. Indirectly there is a golden opportunity to earn billions through derivative market of oil. As per recent report, hedge funds have increased their bullish position in oil, despite the fact that oil has reached the highest level of 2014. Net long positions have been raised across WTI, Brent, NYMEX, ICE, US gasoline etc. Now the ratio of hedge long position to short position has reached 11.5 against the same ratio of 1.5 in June 2017 i.e just few months back. It shows how bullish the market is but may be in hibernation show J . Last year it seems the said IPO was delayed just because the oil price was low (relative to expectation of Saudi Arab), though other reasons of no-decision of IPO subscription market place whther Newyork or london exchange were cited.
It is indeed a last opportunity in front of Saudi arab to earn billions just by selling a small stake in company. This is at a time when big economies like UK, France China have decided to go away from liquid fuel in transportation and industrial sector except petrochemicals (where refined products will be used as feed) by 2030-35. In 2008 when oil touched its peak, Saudi arab produced around 8.5 Million bpd. Lets imagine in case now Saudi Arab lowers its production to 8.5 mbpd or even lower, USD 100 per barerl is simply just a cakewalk for Oil.
Saudi Arab’s dynamic, modern-age and powerful crown prince Muhammad Bin Salman estimates the value of Saudi Aramco more than USD 2 Trillion, which is even more than GDP of almost all countries except 5 or 6. Saudi Arab may also try to disinvest more than 5% as an last attempt to have higher earnings. For that Oil need to be shown off to the outside world very bullish.
Therefore it may be concluded that Saudi Arab is in the process of cutting its oil production in a larger volume (against the official published figures) or will cut aggressively in future as against present rate just to ensure oil price is at higher side by the expected timeline of IPO i.e. Oct 2018. It also may have taken the investment bankers into confidence to ensure high over subscription of world’s largest ever IPO possible. The volume of long positions of hedge funds and money managers are probably just indication.
Just tried to put forward the thought on an idle weekend :) along with logic. Lets See what actually happens finally by dawn of 2019 :).
Saroj Mohapatra
DGM - Marketing and Contracts at H-Energy Group Of Companies
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Friday, 09 February 18
COAL BUYERS SPOOKED BY INDONESIA'S NEW SHIPPING RULES - ASSOC
Buyers of Indonesian coal are holding back orders of the fuel after the government issued new shipping rules for coal and crude palm oil that would ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA LIMITED HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS - UNION MINISTER OF RAILWAYS AND COAL
According to press release from PIB, as per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to impo ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
A NEW WEEK WITH A SOFT SENTIMENT AND DECREASING RATES IN BOTH HEMISPHERE FOR THE PANAMAXES, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG dropping remarkably due to lack of fresh enquiry both for fhaul and bhaul, Supras were fixed from USG to Spore-Japan range now aroun ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO HIT THIRTEEN-MONTH HIGH OF $100.69 A TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) rose 5.39 per cent in February 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure ...
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Showing 1811 to 1815 news of total 6871 |
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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