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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2017 proved to be a relatively good year with positive margins for the Dry Bulk market. Especially during the last quarter of the year everyone can ...
Tuesday, 20 February 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORT RISES BY 12 PER CENT TO 18 MILLION TONNES IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal import increased by 12.4 per cent to 18.49 million tonnes (MT) in January, against 16.
44 MT in the same month of the ...
Monday, 19 February 18
JOINT INSURANCE - WHY SHOULD YOU CARE? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is neither controversial nor new to say that co-assureds under a joint insurance policy cannot claim against each othe ...
Friday, 16 February 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DOWN 4.5 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Thursday, 15 February 18
INDIA: THERMAL POWER PLANTS UNDER STRESS ON RISING COAL, FREIGHT COSTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal-based power plants are feeling the heat of spike in thermal grade coal prices and railway freight costs.
Prices of thermal grade coal sin ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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