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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 27 February 18
SHELL SEES POTENTIAL LNG SUPPLY SHORTAGE AS GLOBAL DEMAND SURGES
Media Release: The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has continued to defy expectations of many market observers, with demand growing by 29 ...
Saturday, 24 February 18
CHINA BECOMES WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST LNG IMPORTER, BEHIND JAPAN - EIA
China surpassed South Korea to become the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2017, according to data from IHS ...
Friday, 23 February 18
ESTIMATED U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.8 PER CENT W/E 17 FEB' 18 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.6 million short tons ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
WHY THE COMMODITY RALLY WILL GET BACK ON TRACK - SIMON FLOWERS
Implications for the US dollar and producers
Are we in the early stages of a sustained rise in commodity prices? And what does it mean for the ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
PANAMAX: IT HAS BEEN A SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slight improvement from Atlantic with more hope for upcoming weeks. More grain cargoes from Black Sea made fhaul rates better again $17- ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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