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Tuesday, 23 January 18
OIL MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Brent oil futures hit a three year high on January 16th touching around USD 70.30 before falling back down to around USD 68.60 at the Time of this publication, the former figure being the highest it has seen since December 2014.
According to Allied's Research Analyst Gerry Lathrop, this has been in part due to the weakened US dollar, a massive decrease in the total global crude storage, as well as the highest rate of OPEC conformity to their oil production cuts, which was announced this past week in the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), in Muscat, Oman. The committee is made up of OPEC and non-OPEC member states, and although its primary goal was not to discuss further production cuts, the question was on the table as to whether they would continue their plan through to 2019.
The answer to that is very much like a social media relationship status, “Its Complicated”. As previously mentioned, oil prices are hovering around a 3-year high, having increased by at least 10% since OPEC’s last meeting in Vienna this past November, and more than 50% from 6 months ago.
On the supply side, Gerry Lathrop said, the number of US oil rigs in 2017 and 2018 reached a new high, surpassing the number of rigs operating in 2016, and leading to a 16% rise in US oil production which peaked at around 9.75m b/d. The International Energy Agency on Friday raised its forecast for US production growth to 1.35m b/d for this year, making up by far the biggest chunk of supply growth outside of OPEC countries. The IEA then went on to say, US crude production is on course to overtake Saudi Arabia and rival Russia, as it made an upward revision on its 2018 growth forecast and stressed that “explosive” expansion in shale was offsetting OPEC-led supply cuts. The IEA, which is the latest body to raise US estimates, following the US energy department’s statistics arm and OPEC’s own research unit, has said: “This year promises to be a record-setting one for the US.”US growth of nearly 1.4m barrels a day, to a record 10.4m b/d, will help propel non-OPEC supply by 1.7m barrels a day in 2018 (Total output from outside the cartel is forecast to reach 59.8m b/d), dwarfing the level of supply cuts in OPEC crude output.
Gerry Lathrop further commented, but it's not all smooth sailing for people in the downstream oil market, the recent OPEC-led rally in crude prices is hitting refinery profits hard, flashing warning signs over oil’s Bull Run. Higher oil prices typically quench consumption and squeeze profit margins at refiners that convert the feedstock into products. Benchmark profit margins in key refining hubs dropped sharply in recent weeks - by over 50% in the U.S. Gulf Coast and northwest Europe, Reuter's data shows - increasing expectations that some refiners will reduce operating rates. However, a wave of refinery maintenance scheduled in spring could eventually put a downward pressure on crude itself. According to the IMF’s most recent upward revisions on its estimates for global economic growth, we are currently witnessing some of the strongest growth figures in years and these (relatively) low oil prices could well boost global oil consumption by a further 1.3m b/d this year, a number the IEA acknowledges is “conservative” compared with other forecasts. Others have predicted demand growth could approach 2m b/d this year, more than double the rate of 2011-2014. Given the above, 2018 could well prove to be the turning point in the tanker market that all of us have been hoping for or at least the spark that sets it in motion.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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