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Tuesday, 23 January 18
OIL MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Brent oil futures hit a three year high on January 16th touching around USD 70.30 before falling back down to around USD 68.60 at the Time of this publication, the former figure being the highest it has seen since December 2014.
According to Allied's Research Analyst Gerry Lathrop, this has been in part due to the weakened US dollar, a massive decrease in the total global crude storage, as well as the highest rate of OPEC conformity to their oil production cuts, which was announced this past week in the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), in Muscat, Oman. The committee is made up of OPEC and non-OPEC member states, and although its primary goal was not to discuss further production cuts, the question was on the table as to whether they would continue their plan through to 2019.
The answer to that is very much like a social media relationship status, “Its Complicated”. As previously mentioned, oil prices are hovering around a 3-year high, having increased by at least 10% since OPEC’s last meeting in Vienna this past November, and more than 50% from 6 months ago.
On the supply side, Gerry Lathrop said, the number of US oil rigs in 2017 and 2018 reached a new high, surpassing the number of rigs operating in 2016, and leading to a 16% rise in US oil production which peaked at around 9.75m b/d. The International Energy Agency on Friday raised its forecast for US production growth to 1.35m b/d for this year, making up by far the biggest chunk of supply growth outside of OPEC countries. The IEA then went on to say, US crude production is on course to overtake Saudi Arabia and rival Russia, as it made an upward revision on its 2018 growth forecast and stressed that “explosive” expansion in shale was offsetting OPEC-led supply cuts. The IEA, which is the latest body to raise US estimates, following the US energy department’s statistics arm and OPEC’s own research unit, has said: “This year promises to be a record-setting one for the US.”US growth of nearly 1.4m barrels a day, to a record 10.4m b/d, will help propel non-OPEC supply by 1.7m barrels a day in 2018 (Total output from outside the cartel is forecast to reach 59.8m b/d), dwarfing the level of supply cuts in OPEC crude output.
Gerry Lathrop further commented, but it's not all smooth sailing for people in the downstream oil market, the recent OPEC-led rally in crude prices is hitting refinery profits hard, flashing warning signs over oil’s Bull Run. Higher oil prices typically quench consumption and squeeze profit margins at refiners that convert the feedstock into products. Benchmark profit margins in key refining hubs dropped sharply in recent weeks - by over 50% in the U.S. Gulf Coast and northwest Europe, Reuter's data shows - increasing expectations that some refiners will reduce operating rates. However, a wave of refinery maintenance scheduled in spring could eventually put a downward pressure on crude itself. According to the IMF’s most recent upward revisions on its estimates for global economic growth, we are currently witnessing some of the strongest growth figures in years and these (relatively) low oil prices could well boost global oil consumption by a further 1.3m b/d this year, a number the IEA acknowledges is “conservative” compared with other forecasts. Others have predicted demand growth could approach 2m b/d this year, more than double the rate of 2011-2014. Given the above, 2018 could well prove to be the turning point in the tanker market that all of us have been hoping for or at least the spark that sets it in motion.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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