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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
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