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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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