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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Wednesday, 21 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2017 proved to be a relatively good year with positive margins for the Dry Bulk market. Especially during the last quarter of the year everyone can ...
Tuesday, 20 February 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORT RISES BY 12 PER CENT TO 18 MILLION TONNES IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal import increased by 12.4 per cent to 18.49 million tonnes (MT) in January, against 16.
44 MT in the same month of the ...
Monday, 19 February 18
JOINT INSURANCE - WHY SHOULD YOU CARE? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is neither controversial nor new to say that co-assureds under a joint insurance policy cannot claim against each othe ...
Friday, 16 February 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DOWN 4.5 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Thursday, 15 February 18
INDIA: THERMAL POWER PLANTS UNDER STRESS ON RISING COAL, FREIGHT COSTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal-based power plants are feeling the heat of spike in thermal grade coal prices and railway freight costs.
Prices of thermal grade coal sin ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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