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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Friday, 02 March 18
ANGLO AMERICAN COMPLETES SALE OF ESKOM-TIED THERMAL COAL OPERATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA
Anglo American plc (“Anglo American”) confirms completion of the sale of its Eskom-tied domestic thermal coal operations in South Afric ...
Friday, 02 March 18
MORE COAL INQUIRES FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO INDIA; SUPRAS FIXED CA $12K + BB - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Better rates in Atlantic, but not too busy market just yet.
Black Sea catched improving rates for grain cargoes, where supras to Eg ...
Friday, 02 March 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7 PER CENT W/E 24 FEB, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
INDIA: TEPID COAL TRAFFIC TO HIT VOLUME GROWTH AT PORTS TILL 2022 - PTI
Cargo growth at the country’s major ports is all set to moderate to 3-5 per cent per annum over the next five years due to the “sedate ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the Inte ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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