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Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased. Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.
World Economy
The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised down by 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demand following the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvement y-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barrel demand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, but remained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.
Tanker Market
Sentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classes showed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16% compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port and weather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains in surplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced a relative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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