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Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
 Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased. Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.
World Economy
The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised down by 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demand following the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvement y-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barrel demand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, but remained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.
Tanker Market
Sentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classes showed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16% compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port and weather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains in surplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced a relative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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