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Tuesday, 07 November 17
PROSPERITY AND WINTER WARMTH REMAIN PARAMOUNT IN CHINA - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
 Chinese officials announced recently that 580 gigawatts of coal-derived electricity generation capacity has completed ultra-low emissions reform as of the end of Q3. This represents more than half of China's total coal-derived electricity generation, and according to the government this accomplishment is over two years ahead of schedule.
As Commodore Research has continued to discuss in China and coal-related coverage, the Chinese government is set to continue focusing on improving pollution -- but at the same time, there will still be a healthy demand for coal. While coal-derived electricity generation this November and December might not increase this year by 14% from October 2017's generation, a large increase is nevertheless likely to be seen again this year.
As discussed most recently in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, Chinese coal-derived electricity generation is seasonal and always falls in October before finding great strength in November and December. So far this decade, China's coal-derived electricity generation in October has come in at a rate 8% lower than seen during the preceding three months. November and December, on average, have then historically seen a 14% increase from October's generation. Going forward, stronger demand for thermal coal (compared to October) is again set to occur, and this is coinciding with power plant stockpiles still standing at lower than normal levels for this time of year. Also helpful for coal import prospects is that Daqin Railway maintenance has commenced later than usual this year, which is putting a small amount of pressure on the transportation of domestic coal.
While specific information on the effects of the power plant ultra-low emissions reform program have not been released, the reform in itself is encouraging and points to coal likely being set to continue to drive electricity generation. Ensuring that electricity generation meets peak winter residential demand remains the single most important issue to China's government where electricity is concerned, and coal will never be shunned at the expense of heating the nation's masses. Along the same lines, new construction methods involving less pollution are being carried out in China as well. As discussed in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, last week saw officials in China announce that a new construction method involving less pollution is being trialed in Shanghai. According to officials, an "inverse building method" is being used in the construction of an expansion to the Shanghai General Hospital. As part of this new method, construction both under and above ground are being conducted simultaneously to lower pollution.
Air pollution remains a large concern in China, but the government must also continue to make sure that construction, job creation, and economic growth maintain strength in the next several years. The Chinese government continues to have conflicting goals and cannot afford economic growth and development to slow substantially even as it continues to fight pollution. It also, of course, cannot afford for any electricity shortages to occur this winter. Improving air pollution will remain a key focus going forward, but Commodore Research does not anticipate that any sustained slowdown in the economy (and commodity import demand) will be seen during the next few years. For this winter, coal is also likely to remain in demand.
About Commodore Research & Consultancy
Commodore Research & Consultancy focuses on providing forward-looking views and analysis on the global economy, national economies, and individual equity and commodity markets. Commodore Research & Consultancy work provides non-consensus research and analysis and often highlights flaws in market consensus.
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Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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