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Tuesday, 07 November 17
PROSPERITY AND WINTER WARMTH REMAIN PARAMOUNT IN CHINA - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
 Chinese officials announced recently that 580 gigawatts of coal-derived electricity generation capacity has completed ultra-low emissions reform as of the end of Q3. This represents more than half of China's total coal-derived electricity generation, and according to the government this accomplishment is over two years ahead of schedule.
As Commodore Research has continued to discuss in China and coal-related coverage, the Chinese government is set to continue focusing on improving pollution -- but at the same time, there will still be a healthy demand for coal. While coal-derived electricity generation this November and December might not increase this year by 14% from October 2017's generation, a large increase is nevertheless likely to be seen again this year.
As discussed most recently in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, Chinese coal-derived electricity generation is seasonal and always falls in October before finding great strength in November and December. So far this decade, China's coal-derived electricity generation in October has come in at a rate 8% lower than seen during the preceding three months. November and December, on average, have then historically seen a 14% increase from October's generation. Going forward, stronger demand for thermal coal (compared to October) is again set to occur, and this is coinciding with power plant stockpiles still standing at lower than normal levels for this time of year. Also helpful for coal import prospects is that Daqin Railway maintenance has commenced later than usual this year, which is putting a small amount of pressure on the transportation of domestic coal.
While specific information on the effects of the power plant ultra-low emissions reform program have not been released, the reform in itself is encouraging and points to coal likely being set to continue to drive electricity generation. Ensuring that electricity generation meets peak winter residential demand remains the single most important issue to China's government where electricity is concerned, and coal will never be shunned at the expense of heating the nation's masses. Along the same lines, new construction methods involving less pollution are being carried out in China as well. As discussed in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, last week saw officials in China announce that a new construction method involving less pollution is being trialed in Shanghai. According to officials, an "inverse building method" is being used in the construction of an expansion to the Shanghai General Hospital. As part of this new method, construction both under and above ground are being conducted simultaneously to lower pollution.
Air pollution remains a large concern in China, but the government must also continue to make sure that construction, job creation, and economic growth maintain strength in the next several years. The Chinese government continues to have conflicting goals and cannot afford economic growth and development to slow substantially even as it continues to fight pollution. It also, of course, cannot afford for any electricity shortages to occur this winter. Improving air pollution will remain a key focus going forward, but Commodore Research does not anticipate that any sustained slowdown in the economy (and commodity import demand) will be seen during the next few years. For this winter, coal is also likely to remain in demand.
About Commodore Research & Consultancy
Commodore Research & Consultancy focuses on providing forward-looking views and analysis on the global economy, national economies, and individual equity and commodity markets. Commodore Research & Consultancy work provides non-consensus research and analysis and often highlights flaws in market consensus.
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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