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Friday, 24 February 17
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS WITHSTANDS OIL PRICE SHOCK - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch RatingsFitch Ratings says in a new report that the Russian oil and gas sector has withstood the oil price stock of 1H16. Key events of 2016 include record crude production levels, Rosneft's acquisition of Bashneft in October 2016 and subsequent privatisation, as well as Gazprom's record gas sales to Europe.

According to Fitch Ratings the completed EUR10.2bn sale of a 19.5% stake in Rosneft to Glencore and the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) is an important milestone for the sector. The ownership structure of the joint venture appears transparent: Fitch understands the joint venture that holds the stake in Rosneft is owned in equal shares by Glencore and QIA. Fitch does not rate Rosneft and therefore does not have detailed information on the transaction, but information reviewed by Fitch to date has confirmed the shareholding structure and fully resolved the agency's other questions raised at the Oil & Gas conference: "The Time for Cautious Optimism in Moscow on 15 February 2017".

In September-October 2016, Russia increased oil production by some 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent to the record volume of 11.23 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboepd), mainly due to the launch of and continuing ramp-up across several large greenfields. Following the OPEC deal at end-November 2016, Russia agreed to cut production by some 300mboepd, bringing the post-deal volumes to 10.9mmboepd.

Fitch Ratings further noted that, in 9M16, production from certain Russian oil brownfields increased and natural decline rates moderated, mainly on significantly higher production drilling volumes that some producers demonstrated. Brownfield taxation remains high - the mineral royalty (MET) and the export duty account for 50%-60% of a typical brownfield's revenue - limiting further brownfield production growth potential.

Most Fitch-rated Russian oil and gas companies are on Stable Outlook. The Stable Outlook is driven by our expectation of stable crude production volumes and improving upstream profitability on higher forecast oil prices. Unlike their western European peers, Russian oil and gas companies did not significantly reduce capex or headcount in 2016.

Falling oil prices and taxation changes lowered downstream profitability in 9M16, resulting in higher crude exports and a 20% reduction in fuel oil production. We forecast Russian downstream to continue performing at levels similar to or slightly better than those in 2016, said Fitch Ratings.

Due to competitive gas prices and cold weather, Gazprom posted record high gas sales in Europe in 2016, while its financial results suffered from falling average gas prices. We expect Gazprom's funds from operations (FFO) net leverage to increase to around 2x on high capex; nonetheless, the leverage remains within our rating guidance.


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