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Friday, 24 February 17
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS WITHSTANDS OIL PRICE SHOCK - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch RatingsFitch Ratings says in a new report that the Russian oil and gas sector has withstood the oil price stock of 1H16. Key events of 2016 include record crude production levels, Rosneft's acquisition of Bashneft in October 2016 and subsequent privatisation, as well as Gazprom's record gas sales to Europe.

According to Fitch Ratings the completed EUR10.2bn sale of a 19.5% stake in Rosneft to Glencore and the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) is an important milestone for the sector. The ownership structure of the joint venture appears transparent: Fitch understands the joint venture that holds the stake in Rosneft is owned in equal shares by Glencore and QIA. Fitch does not rate Rosneft and therefore does not have detailed information on the transaction, but information reviewed by Fitch to date has confirmed the shareholding structure and fully resolved the agency's other questions raised at the Oil & Gas conference: "The Time for Cautious Optimism in Moscow on 15 February 2017".

In September-October 2016, Russia increased oil production by some 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent to the record volume of 11.23 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboepd), mainly due to the launch of and continuing ramp-up across several large greenfields. Following the OPEC deal at end-November 2016, Russia agreed to cut production by some 300mboepd, bringing the post-deal volumes to 10.9mmboepd.

Fitch Ratings further noted that, in 9M16, production from certain Russian oil brownfields increased and natural decline rates moderated, mainly on significantly higher production drilling volumes that some producers demonstrated. Brownfield taxation remains high - the mineral royalty (MET) and the export duty account for 50%-60% of a typical brownfield's revenue - limiting further brownfield production growth potential.

Most Fitch-rated Russian oil and gas companies are on Stable Outlook. The Stable Outlook is driven by our expectation of stable crude production volumes and improving upstream profitability on higher forecast oil prices. Unlike their western European peers, Russian oil and gas companies did not significantly reduce capex or headcount in 2016.

Falling oil prices and taxation changes lowered downstream profitability in 9M16, resulting in higher crude exports and a 20% reduction in fuel oil production. We forecast Russian downstream to continue performing at levels similar to or slightly better than those in 2016, said Fitch Ratings.

Due to competitive gas prices and cold weather, Gazprom posted record high gas sales in Europe in 2016, while its financial results suffered from falling average gas prices. We expect Gazprom's funds from operations (FFO) net leverage to increase to around 2x on high capex; nonetheless, the leverage remains within our rating guidance.


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Recent News

Tuesday, 21 March 17
DESPITE THE CHALLENGING MARKET SITUATION IN 2016 THE DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR HAS ACHIEVED A NET PROFIT OF US$37 MILLION
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. has announced its financial results for the period ended December 31, 2016. Despite challenging marke ...


Tuesday, 21 March 17
JAPAN'S RENEWED COMMITMENT TO COAL - BENJAMIN SPORTON
Japan is one of the largest economies in the world, and has long been a major consumer and importer of energy and a leader in energy technology dev ...


Monday, 20 March 17
IS THE DRY BULK INDUSTRY STILL ON TRACK FOR PROFITABILITY IN 2019? - PETER SAND
The industry remains well on target for profitable freight rates in 2019! This relies however, on the projected fleet supply growth rate of 0% in 2 ...


Friday, 17 March 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT VOLUME SLIDES 6.5 PERCENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.7 million short ton ...


Thursday, 16 March 17
CHINA IMPOSING TOUGHER CONTROLS ON LOW-QUALITY COAL IMPORTS
China is ramping up controls on imports of low-quality coal due to concerns about smog and overcapacity in the world’s top coal consumer, a g ...


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