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Wednesday, 19 October 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IS IN A WAIT AND SEE MODE - INTERMODAL
 We are now heading towards the end of a rather volatile 2016 for the dry bulk segment. During the last 10 months there were never any clear indications that hire rates would stabilize at viable levels, but after Q1 asset values rose. Now the shipping market is in a wait and see mode, still very uncertain in regards to whether this recent small spike will prove sustainable or not and of course how will it affect asset values going forward.
It's not that investors wish the market to get worse; it’s just that right now, prices do not reflect the absence of a substantial recovery in the freight market. In other words they don't really make sense, at least to most people.
Q1 was clearly the bottom as far as values are concerned, but that lead to increased demand for modern tonnage, a trend that eventually boosted prices all the way throughout the beginning of Q4. Ship owners simply did what they do best. They invested in a low market.
During the first 3 quarters of the year, Handysize and Supramax vessels were the crowd favorites with the total number of transactions reaching 109 and 95 respectively, while Capes were trailing third with 75 deals. All in all at the end of September, a total of 465 transactions of bulk carriers were reported as being concluded.
As the buyer pool now seems to be getting smaller, we can help but wonder how SnP activity will be affected during the weeks leading to the end of the year. It seems that the shipping industry is mostly focusing on what 2017 will bring and there many people out there quite optimistic. The reason for this rare burst of optimism is based on a number of factors.
Starting with the newbuilding contracting so far we are counting only 47 contracts, with 30 of those vessels being the Valemaxes ordered by Chinese interests. We were at a 9-year low up until September. Additionally we have the Water Ballast Treatment regulations coming into effect as of next year, which will most definitely have an impact on the fleet and eventually freight rates. Owners will have to decide if they will speed up the Special Survey, prepare to install WBT or scrap the respective vessels.
Speaking about scrapping, 2015 and the first half of 2016 where very active followed by a slower H2. Now, if in addition to the new WBT regulation no further substantial recovery is witnessed in the freight market during H1 2017, demolition activity will normally remain robust throughout the summer months of 2017 and prior to the deadline of the implementation in early September. Given that there are approximately 57 million dwt (856 vessels) that are older than 20 years this does not seem too farfetched.
So from one hand there are no clear signs that the charter market will pick up, but there are factors that could or should limit the supply of tonnage. Well yes, in this assumption there is a lot of wishfully thinking, but bear with me for a second. All of the above is a combination of facts and speculation but they could eventually put a dent in the size of the fleet. In a way, it seems that 2017 is probably the first year that there are a few reasons to believe that the fleet will start to stabilize. Given the fact that that Owners and shipping in general have demonstrated remarkable resilience in this market it is not that illogical to hope or even believe that the next year could end up better even than expected.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 October 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.2% TO 16 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
Monday, 24 October 16
DRY BULK:MARKET ENDS WEEK WITH MIXED REACTIONS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ending with mixed direction as Cape and BDI was declined ...
Thursday, 20 October 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 16.97 PERCENT MORE COAL IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,216.7 m ...
Thursday, 20 October 16
A SUPRAMAX HAVE BEEN FIXED AT $12,500 FOR A INDIA TO BANGLADESH TRIP - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A bit more activities with modest upturn in rates.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero has seen cons ...
Tuesday, 18 October 16
COAL PRICES KEPT CLIMBING
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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