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Wednesday, 19 October 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IS IN A WAIT AND SEE MODE - INTERMODAL
 We are now heading towards the end of a rather volatile 2016 for the dry bulk segment. During the last 10 months there were never any clear indications that hire rates would stabilize at viable levels, but after Q1 asset values rose. Now the shipping market is in a wait and see mode, still very uncertain in regards to whether this recent small spike will prove sustainable or not and of course how will it affect asset values going forward.
It's not that investors wish the market to get worse; it’s just that right now, prices do not reflect the absence of a substantial recovery in the freight market. In other words they don't really make sense, at least to most people.
Q1 was clearly the bottom as far as values are concerned, but that lead to increased demand for modern tonnage, a trend that eventually boosted prices all the way throughout the beginning of Q4. Ship owners simply did what they do best. They invested in a low market.
During the first 3 quarters of the year, Handysize and Supramax vessels were the crowd favorites with the total number of transactions reaching 109 and 95 respectively, while Capes were trailing third with 75 deals. All in all at the end of September, a total of 465 transactions of bulk carriers were reported as being concluded.
As the buyer pool now seems to be getting smaller, we can help but wonder how SnP activity will be affected during the weeks leading to the end of the year. It seems that the shipping industry is mostly focusing on what 2017 will bring and there many people out there quite optimistic. The reason for this rare burst of optimism is based on a number of factors.
Starting with the newbuilding contracting so far we are counting only 47 contracts, with 30 of those vessels being the Valemaxes ordered by Chinese interests. We were at a 9-year low up until September. Additionally we have the Water Ballast Treatment regulations coming into effect as of next year, which will most definitely have an impact on the fleet and eventually freight rates. Owners will have to decide if they will speed up the Special Survey, prepare to install WBT or scrap the respective vessels.
Speaking about scrapping, 2015 and the first half of 2016 where very active followed by a slower H2. Now, if in addition to the new WBT regulation no further substantial recovery is witnessed in the freight market during H1 2017, demolition activity will normally remain robust throughout the summer months of 2017 and prior to the deadline of the implementation in early September. Given that there are approximately 57 million dwt (856 vessels) that are older than 20 years this does not seem too farfetched.
So from one hand there are no clear signs that the charter market will pick up, but there are factors that could or should limit the supply of tonnage. Well yes, in this assumption there is a lot of wishfully thinking, but bear with me for a second. All of the above is a combination of facts and speculation but they could eventually put a dent in the size of the fleet. In a way, it seems that 2017 is probably the first year that there are a few reasons to believe that the fleet will start to stabilize. Given the fact that that Owners and shipping in general have demonstrated remarkable resilience in this market it is not that illogical to hope or even believe that the next year could end up better even than expected.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 October 16
PANAMAX: FIRM ATLANTIC; TOPPISH PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The trend from last week is passed on. ECSA still strong with Supras from N Brazil to Med fixed at $9,000 to $9,500 daily.
Accordin ...
Wednesday, 26 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
If the finale of a thriller movie finds the leading actor successfully surviving after all the sacrifices he has made, the audience presumes this t ...
Tuesday, 25 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES MARCH HIGHER CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Tuesday, 25 October 16
THINGS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO IMPROVE AS CORRECTIONS ARE MADE - ALLIED
It seems as though left, right and centre, all we see nowadays is the word “restructuring”.
There is restructuring amongst bankers ...
Monday, 24 October 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 0.78 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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