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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 August 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY AND FIRM THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 18.74%
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
Friday, 26 August 16
WEEKLY US COAL OUTPUT UP 0.7% W/W TO 16 MMST: EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
Thursday, 25 August 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE BEING FIXED IN REGION OF $9000
Supramax
Due to Chinese coal imports which continues to source much of the tonnage in SE Asia combined with a good flow of mineral exports ex Aus ...
Wednesday, 24 August 16
MARKET INSIGHT
Brazil and the world bid farewell on Sunday to the first Olympic Games in South America in the midst of a finale meant to be both one last bash and ...
Wednesday, 24 August 16
DRY BULK VESSELS FACE CONTINUED DISTRESS - CLEAR ASSET
Dry bulk vessels have faced extreme distress in recent years. With a combination of factors including newer vessels being ordered with up to 5-year ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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