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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 September 16
SUPRAMAX GETTING LEVELS OF MID/HIGHER 7K DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR TRIPS TO CHINA AND AROUND 9K FOR DIRECTION INDIA - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week started slower with London on bank holiday Monday. The south east Asian market seems to have been taking a breather with chart ...
Thursday, 01 September 16
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.33 PERCENT MORE COAL IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.10 bill ...
Wednesday, 31 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET MANAGED TO FIND FURTHER SUPPORT DURING THE LAST DAYS OF THE SUMMER SEASON - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market managed to find further support during the last days of the summer season, with the BDI climbing above 700 last Friday, reachin ...
Tuesday, 30 August 16
THE SUDDEN SURGE IN IRON ORE TRADE HAS CREPT UP ON THE MARKET THIS PAST WEEK - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The sudden surge in Iron ore trade has crept up on the market this past week bringing about a change in the prospects for Capes. Continued increase ...
Monday, 29 August 16
THE 5000 GAR THERMAL COAL INDEX HAS STRENGTHENED BY 9.90% SINCE JANUARY
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing upward and it is expected to ral ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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