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Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
 What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these characteristics. Although trying to predict the market is never easy, digging into the fundamentals, along with the behavioral aspects that drive it, is probably the only way to go.
On one side there is the bear. There is no other factor more important than the actual demand for the physical commodity and its growth prospects have fallen behind expectations, as EIA’s data forecast the average price of Brent blend at $42/bbl for the current year and at $52/bbl for 2017. These numbers suggest that, despite its current short-term fluctuations between $40 and $50, crude oil market is in contango in the long-term. But the crucial factors that not only back-up these statements but also play their own role in dragging down the oil prices do not stop there. Add to the mix the excessive inventory building in both shore and floating tanks and the lower refinery margins and it would appear that the glut is here and is here to stay. Or is it?
On the other side there is the bull. Surprisingly, at the same time that the world’s biggest oil producer followed by Iran, Iraq and other OPEC members are pumping at historical record rates, the markets rallied from approximately $40 to almost $49 for an approximate 20% flat price increase in 7 trading days within August! Rational? No! Did it happen? It most certainly did! The lesson to be learned here is that even though the fundamentals may suggest a softening market, it only takes one statement from OPEC’s leading member to reverse the whole sentiment. “The situation will be discussed” said Saudi Arabia’s current minister and the markets obeyed.
To freeze or not to freeze? That is the million dollar question that the much anticipated OPEC meeting needs to answer for the markets to stabilize. However, it has already been proven that the statements of the cartel’s members are not always consistent with their actions and in this irrational market actions may not speak louder than words as record pumping rates firm the oil market instead of softening it!
But the uncertainty about the future does not stop at the primary crude oil market since the derivative oil product market closely follows its steps. An examination of the inventories in gasoline and diesel as benchmarks of the clean oil products across Europe, Asia and the USA reveals that these markets are also in contango. As a result, prices are pressured down with a direct impact to lower tanker rates for almost all the clean tanker segment. Furthermore, regional spreads that create arbitrage trading opportunities are diminishing, leading to lower rates for regional short-haul voyages performed by small tankers.
The most profound conclusion of the above is uncertainty in expectations, which results in volatility in both crude and product markets. These features are depicted in tanker rates, as the adverse conditions that exist in the oil markets surely enough spill over into the tanker markets. Thus, without owning the magic crystal ball, it would most probably be naïve to try to make a prediction about the future under current conditions. This situation may be a playground for oil traders who thrive on volatility, but a headache for tanker shipowners who may be called to tackle with another recession and try to ride the cycle one more time.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 October 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.2% TO 16 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
Monday, 24 October 16
DRY BULK:MARKET ENDS WEEK WITH MIXED REACTIONS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ending with mixed direction as Cape and BDI was declined ...
Thursday, 20 October 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 16.97 PERCENT MORE COAL IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,216.7 m ...
Thursday, 20 October 16
A SUPRAMAX HAVE BEEN FIXED AT $12,500 FOR A INDIA TO BANGLADESH TRIP - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A bit more activities with modest upturn in rates.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero has seen cons ...
Wednesday, 19 October 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IS IN A WAIT AND SEE MODE - INTERMODAL
We are now heading towards the end of a rather volatile 2016 for the dry bulk segment. During the last 10 months there were never any clear indicat ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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