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Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
 What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these characteristics. Although trying to predict the market is never easy, digging into the fundamentals, along with the behavioral aspects that drive it, is probably the only way to go.
On one side there is the bear. There is no other factor more important than the actual demand for the physical commodity and its growth prospects have fallen behind expectations, as EIA’s data forecast the average price of Brent blend at $42/bbl for the current year and at $52/bbl for 2017. These numbers suggest that, despite its current short-term fluctuations between $40 and $50, crude oil market is in contango in the long-term. But the crucial factors that not only back-up these statements but also play their own role in dragging down the oil prices do not stop there. Add to the mix the excessive inventory building in both shore and floating tanks and the lower refinery margins and it would appear that the glut is here and is here to stay. Or is it?
On the other side there is the bull. Surprisingly, at the same time that the world’s biggest oil producer followed by Iran, Iraq and other OPEC members are pumping at historical record rates, the markets rallied from approximately $40 to almost $49 for an approximate 20% flat price increase in 7 trading days within August! Rational? No! Did it happen? It most certainly did! The lesson to be learned here is that even though the fundamentals may suggest a softening market, it only takes one statement from OPEC’s leading member to reverse the whole sentiment. “The situation will be discussed” said Saudi Arabia’s current minister and the markets obeyed.
To freeze or not to freeze? That is the million dollar question that the much anticipated OPEC meeting needs to answer for the markets to stabilize. However, it has already been proven that the statements of the cartel’s members are not always consistent with their actions and in this irrational market actions may not speak louder than words as record pumping rates firm the oil market instead of softening it!
But the uncertainty about the future does not stop at the primary crude oil market since the derivative oil product market closely follows its steps. An examination of the inventories in gasoline and diesel as benchmarks of the clean oil products across Europe, Asia and the USA reveals that these markets are also in contango. As a result, prices are pressured down with a direct impact to lower tanker rates for almost all the clean tanker segment. Furthermore, regional spreads that create arbitrage trading opportunities are diminishing, leading to lower rates for regional short-haul voyages performed by small tankers.
The most profound conclusion of the above is uncertainty in expectations, which results in volatility in both crude and product markets. These features are depicted in tanker rates, as the adverse conditions that exist in the oil markets surely enough spill over into the tanker markets. Thus, without owning the magic crystal ball, it would most probably be naïve to try to make a prediction about the future under current conditions. This situation may be a playground for oil traders who thrive on volatility, but a headache for tanker shipowners who may be called to tackle with another recession and try to ride the cycle one more time.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 01 November 16
IMPROVEMENT ON THE DEMAND SIDE ONLY BUT THE SUPPLY SIDE IS WORSE OFF - BIMCO
Back in May, BIMCO disclosed a projected “road to recovery” for the dry bulk shipping industry. The main message back then on what the ...
Monday, 31 October 16
INDONESIAN 5000 GAR COAL ROSE 5.56% WEEK OVER WEEK - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: The price for thermal coal has recovered substantially since April 2016. The China’s new policy on its domestic coal miners, th ...
Friday, 28 October 16
STEAM COAL IMPORTS: CHINA AND INDIA'S ROLE REVERSALS - BEN TRIMMEL
While a sharp decline in European imports is a key driver of the expected fall in steam coal trade this year, China and India remain leading actors ...
Friday, 28 October 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE DURING THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 22 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 27 October 16
73.08 PERCENT OF COAL PRODUCERS PREDICTED INDIA WILL NOT STOP COAL IMPORTS IN 2 TO 3 YEARS - POLL
COALspot released its weekly opinion poll "How likely do you think India will STOP thermal coal imports in 2-3 years?" this Monday.
...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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