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Monday, 15 August 16
DRY BULK: 2017 COULD MARK THE START OF LOWER SHIP DELIVERIES HELPING TONNAGE SUPPLY ISSUES IN THE MARKET, SAYS SHIPOWNER - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Dry bulk owner Pacific Basin, mainly active in the Handysize and Supramax trades appeared optimistic in its analysis of the prospects of the dry bulk market moving forward. In short, high scrapping activity, lower ship deliveries from 2017 onwards, as a result of negligible newbuilding activity and increased slippage, could lead to a significant improvement of the demand/supply balance of the market moving forward.
According to Pacific Basin, “Handysize and Supramax spot market rates averaged US$3,900 and US$4,570 per day net respectively in the first half of 2016, representing a 22% and 27% decline in average earnings year on year. Baltic dry bulk freight market indices continued to decline in early 2016 to new record lows for all bulk carrier types which, in February, all recorded TCE earnings of less than US$3,000 per day. Such level of earnings is below cash operating expenses and conditions are estimated to have been as poor as those of the early 1970s. Freight rates were undermined mainly by a general seasonal and Chinese New Year slowdown in demand, lingering oversupply of dry bulk tonnage and lower Chinese imports of coal. Increased activity after mid-February supported improved market freight rates – more notably in the Atlantic due primarily to increased South American grain exports – albeit from a very low base and resulting in a very weak half-year period overall for dry bulk shipping”.
In terms of supply, Pacific Basin noted that “the global fleet of 25,000-40,000 dwt Handysize and 50,000-60,000 dwt Supramax ships grew 1.4% net and 2.3% net respectively during the half year, and there has been negligible net growth in the dry bulk fleet overall since the seasonal surge in new ship deliveries in January. Following a similar pattern to last year, new ship deliveries in the first half represented 3.6% of existing dry bulk capacity and full-year deliveries are projected to fall significantly short of the scheduled order book. All-time low freight earnings encouraged increased scrapping to 1.8% of existing dry bulk capacity in the first quarter – a level not seen in over 30 years. The second quarter saw a reduced pace of scrapping due to improved freight market conditions. In the half year overall, shipowners opted to delete 2.8% of total dry bulk capacity and 2.5% of Handysize capacity rather than continue to operate their older or poorly designed ships in such depressed trading conditions. For the first time since the 1980s, we observed a meaningful number of vessels withdrawn from the market for short-term idling or longer-term lay-up”.
SHIP VALUES
The ship owner added that “values of benchmark five-year-old and newbuilding Handysize bulk carriers have reduced by 2% and 5% since the start of the year to US$9.3 million and US$19.5 million respectively as estimated by Clarksons Platou, and they appear to have stabilised. The significant gap between newbuilding and secondhand prices continues to discourage new ship ordering activity which will benefit freight market fundamentals in the future. Cancelled or abandoned newbuildings especially from Chinese shipyards are occasionally marketed for sale by shipbuilders at significant discounts”.
KEY DEMAND DEVELOPMENTS
Meanwhile, “year on year, Clarksons Platou estimate dry bulk shipping demand in the first quarter to have increased by 0.4%. Key drivers through the first half included increased iron ore exports – especially from Brazil – as well as growth in Chinese steel exports and bauxite and copper concentrates imports, and strong exports of long-haul South American agricultural products. Chinese imports of seven key minor bulks increased by 5 million tonnes or 4% year on year, reflecting slower growth in Chinese industrial output. Having declined significantly in early 2015, coal volumes have been steadier since a year ago. Reduced bauxite exports from Malaysia have been largely offset by growth in longer haul volumes from Guinea and other Atlantic exporters. US petcoke exports in January to April increased 6% year on year driven by strong growth in Indian demand which has more than offset a decline in volumes to China. Despite the marginally positive year-on-year demand data, a typical seasonal fall in dry bulk trade volumes from the last quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016 contributed to record low freight rates in the first quarter. Overall dry bulk demand improved in the second quarter, particularly in the Atlantic due primarily to increased South American grain exports”, said Pacific Basin.
ORDERBOOK
Finally, “the dry bulk order book has reduced to 15% from 18% a year ago. New ordering for most dry bulk ship types was negligible in the first half of the year which is further increasing pressure on underutilised shipyards. New orders were substantially limited to thirty Valemax ore carriers dedicated to Vale’s own iron ore export trades and primarily built to replace an ageing Very Large Ore Carrier fleet. The significant order book shortfall and slippage continues, and we expect new ship deliveries in the full year 2016 to be similar to last year’s 49 million deadweight tonnes. We expect the absence of new ordering to result in significantly reduced new ship deliveries from next year onwards”, the ship owner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Ar ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
INDIAN STEELMAKERS' DELEVERAGING AT RISK ON COKING COAL PRICE JUMP - FITCH
The sharp increase in coking coal prices since August 2016 could squeeze Indian steelmakers' profitability and threaten their deleveraging, Fit ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
UK SEABORNE COAL IMPORT PLUNGES 64% AS A WORRYING TREND LURKS - BIMCO
The main exporters of thermal coal for coal- fired power plants to the United Kingdom (UK) have experienced a heavy decline in seaborne cargo volum ...
Monday, 10 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since September 2014. The government declared benchmark prices for Indon ...
Monday, 10 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET FIRMS UP ON STRONG CAPE PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose again and ending in a positive note this past week. ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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