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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 05 August 16
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE REMAINING AT DEPRESSING LEVELS DUE TO LACK OF FRESH CARGOES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week has been one of the slowest for some time with rates under pressure in most areas.
In its latest weekly report, shipbroke ...
Thursday, 04 August 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES ARE STARTING TO ZOOM HIGHER; HBA ROSE 10.13% TO US$ 58.37 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since August 2015.
The Director General of Mineral and Coa ...
Thursday, 04 August 16
BREXIT: IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL SHIPPING AND SEA TRADE - EVERSHEDS
The buzzword for the post-Brexit landscape both in Europe and further afield is ‘uncertainty’. No-one really knows the long term effect ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
RECAAP INFORMATION SHARING CENTRE ISSUES SPECIAL REPORT ON THE ABDUCTING OF CREW FROM SHIPS IN WATERS OFF EASTERN SABAH AND SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the light of three incidents where the crew of tug boats were abducted in the waters off Eastern Sabah and Southern Ph ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its glob ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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