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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 15 August 16
THE SPOT FREIGHT MARKET STRENGTHEN OVER THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose as Cape and Panamax segments ending in a positive no ...
Friday, 12 August 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ENDING AUGUST 6 FELL SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
CAPESIZE THE PACIFIC SIDE IS LOOKING MORE POSITIVE, DRIVEN BY AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rates continue to be under pressure with index ending up with 639 points and average TC value at USD6,680, said Fearnleys. Fearnleys A/S ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
EIA ESTIMATES THE DELIVERED COAL PRICE TO U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN 2017 AVERAGED $2.24/MMBTU; $0.05/MMBTU HIGHER THAN 2016 ESTIMATES
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in July was 65 million short tons (MMst), an 8 MMst (14%) increase from the previous month but 11 MMst (15%) low ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT SOFTENING LAST WEEK; WE CAN SEE MUCH HEALTHIER NUMBERS STARTING SEPTEMBER
The Dry Bulk market kept softening last week as we have now started going through the traditionally quieter days of the summer season peak period, ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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