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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 September 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 19 MMST IN 2016 TO 55 MMST
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million sho ...
Thursday, 01 September 16
SUPRAMAX GETTING LEVELS OF MID/HIGHER 7K DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR TRIPS TO CHINA AND AROUND 9K FOR DIRECTION INDIA - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week started slower with London on bank holiday Monday. The south east Asian market seems to have been taking a breather with chart ...
Thursday, 01 September 16
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.33 PERCENT MORE COAL IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.10 bill ...
Wednesday, 31 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET MANAGED TO FIND FURTHER SUPPORT DURING THE LAST DAYS OF THE SUMMER SEASON - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market managed to find further support during the last days of the summer season, with the BDI climbing above 700 last Friday, reachin ...
Tuesday, 30 August 16
THE SUDDEN SURGE IN IRON ORE TRADE HAS CREPT UP ON THE MARKET THIS PAST WEEK - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The sudden surge in Iron ore trade has crept up on the market this past week bringing about a change in the prospects for Capes. Continued increase ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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