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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 06 September 16
INDO GOVT. SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT US$ 63.93 PER TON; JUMP 20.17% YTD
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since April 2015. The government declared benchmark prices f ...
Tuesday, 06 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE PACIFIC BASIN WAS THE MAIN REGION KEEPING UP WITH THE POSITIVE SUPPORT - ALLIED
Capesize
Despite some mixed feelings being seen early on in the week, we managed to see a positive week-on-week close on Friday with some positiv ...
Monday, 05 September 16
INDIA BECAME ADARO'S SECOND LARGEST MARKET IN 1H' 16
COALspot.com: The Wara Balangan blend product has been well received by customers in China and India - AI
In the second quarter of 2 ...
Monday, 05 September 16
POOR FREIGHT RATES DESPITE STRONG DEMAND GROWTH FROM CHINA - BIMCO
Demand
The dry bulk commodity imports into and exports out of China we have seen in the first half of 2016 are very positive – and nothing ...
Monday, 05 September 16
FREIGHT RATE FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
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