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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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