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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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