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Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
 SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the month (-1% m/m; +222% y/y).
The Baltic Dry Index ended June up 8%, driven by stronger chartering activity for larger vessel classes towards month-end. Forward curves imply near-term upside to Cape rates, though a relatively muted outlook for other vessel classes.
Stronger iron ore shipments and optimism over Chinese coal output restrictions, in turn spurring higher import demand, have provided some near-term support. Sustainability is in question though. Our latest industry survey suggests caution clearly persists, with surveyed participants becoming moderately more bearish on the timeline of dry bulk freight supply-demand rebalancing over the past six months.
SGX Freight Derivatives
Freight volumes in June totaled 36,542 contracts (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts (-1% m/m; +222% y/y). Futures comprised 98% of total swaps/futures volume during the period.
BDI creeps higher in June; volatility muted
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the month up 8% in June, with relative stability across the board before rates rose into month-end on stronger chartering activity. Capesize rates closed June 17% higher, while Panamax rates rose 15%. Among smaller vessels, Supramax and Handysize rates ended the month up 7% and down 3%, respectively. In the Capesize market in particular, volatility dropped to uncharacteristically low levels.
Forward expectations rose across the board in June, with the front end of the time charter forward curves (2016 contract months) all rising over 10%, while the near months in the Panamax and Supramax forward curves rose 19.5% and 18.3% respectively during June. Looking ahead, the forward curves imply strong upside for Capesize rates in the months ahead, while other vessel classes are expected to remain largely steady. The spot Cape/Panamax ratio closed June broadly unchanged at 1.50x, versus 1.49x a month ago (LTM avg.: 1.41x), remaining moderately above its last-twelve-month average.
Freight rates rise into month-end, industry remains cautious on market fundamentals
Following relative stability for much of the month, freight rates ticked higher into month-end on stronger chartering activity. In the coal market, domestic Chinese output restrictions and the resulting rise in unit costs have been spurring some optimism of stronger seaborne coal demand. In the iron ore market, Brazilian iron ore exports have notably been sequentially higher in Q3 (versus Q2) in all of the past ten years. That said, our latest industry survey indicates views have become moderately more cautious on the timing of a sustainable market rebalancing in the dry bulk freight market, with few anticipating a meaningful improvement in the supply -demand balance until 2018 at the earliest, and about a quarter of respondents not anticipating this until after 2020. Our survey also indicated a consensus view of between 0-3% global net dry bulk fleet growth this year.
Across key dry bulk commodities, iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports increased in June, continuing their general and sustained uptrend since early Q4 2015. Iron ore prices on average declined 5.7% m/m in June, though broke out higher towards month-end on a sentiment-driven rise in Chinese steel prices. Thermal coal inventory at Chinese ports on the other hand declined through June, while seaborne prices ended the month around a year-to-date high. Domestic Chinese output restrictions and higher unit costs have spurred optimism over stronger import demand in the coming months.
Source: SGX | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow a ...
Thursday, 28 July 16
LAST WEEK ENDING UP WITH BUSIER TONES FOR SUPRAMAXES NOW COOLING DOWN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week ending up with busier tones for Supramaxes now cooling down as with index being down to 684. Average daily earnings for Supram ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
RATES FOR THE SMALLER SIZES OVER-PERFORMED THE MARKET LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
The decline the BDI noted last week was somewhat expected given the fact that the market has been overall firming for almost a month no ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN GLOBAL CONSUMPTION IN 2016 - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Global oil supply is expected to remain higher than global consumption in 2016, keeping oil prices at relatively low levels this summer compared wi ...
Tuesday, 26 July 16
NORTH P&I CLUB EXPLAINS HOW TO AVOID CLAIMS FOR SELF-COOKING SOYA BEANS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
North P&I Club has advised its members to be extra vigilant during loading and transport of soya beans to ensure they ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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