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Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
 SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the month (-1% m/m; +222% y/y).
The Baltic Dry Index ended June up 8%, driven by stronger chartering activity for larger vessel classes towards month-end. Forward curves imply near-term upside to Cape rates, though a relatively muted outlook for other vessel classes.
Stronger iron ore shipments and optimism over Chinese coal output restrictions, in turn spurring higher import demand, have provided some near-term support. Sustainability is in question though. Our latest industry survey suggests caution clearly persists, with surveyed participants becoming moderately more bearish on the timeline of dry bulk freight supply-demand rebalancing over the past six months.
SGX Freight Derivatives
Freight volumes in June totaled 36,542 contracts (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts (-1% m/m; +222% y/y). Futures comprised 98% of total swaps/futures volume during the period.
BDI creeps higher in June; volatility muted
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the month up 8% in June, with relative stability across the board before rates rose into month-end on stronger chartering activity. Capesize rates closed June 17% higher, while Panamax rates rose 15%. Among smaller vessels, Supramax and Handysize rates ended the month up 7% and down 3%, respectively. In the Capesize market in particular, volatility dropped to uncharacteristically low levels.
Forward expectations rose across the board in June, with the front end of the time charter forward curves (2016 contract months) all rising over 10%, while the near months in the Panamax and Supramax forward curves rose 19.5% and 18.3% respectively during June. Looking ahead, the forward curves imply strong upside for Capesize rates in the months ahead, while other vessel classes are expected to remain largely steady. The spot Cape/Panamax ratio closed June broadly unchanged at 1.50x, versus 1.49x a month ago (LTM avg.: 1.41x), remaining moderately above its last-twelve-month average.
Freight rates rise into month-end, industry remains cautious on market fundamentals
Following relative stability for much of the month, freight rates ticked higher into month-end on stronger chartering activity. In the coal market, domestic Chinese output restrictions and the resulting rise in unit costs have been spurring some optimism of stronger seaborne coal demand. In the iron ore market, Brazilian iron ore exports have notably been sequentially higher in Q3 (versus Q2) in all of the past ten years. That said, our latest industry survey indicates views have become moderately more cautious on the timing of a sustainable market rebalancing in the dry bulk freight market, with few anticipating a meaningful improvement in the supply -demand balance until 2018 at the earliest, and about a quarter of respondents not anticipating this until after 2020. Our survey also indicated a consensus view of between 0-3% global net dry bulk fleet growth this year.
Across key dry bulk commodities, iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports increased in June, continuing their general and sustained uptrend since early Q4 2015. Iron ore prices on average declined 5.7% m/m in June, though broke out higher towards month-end on a sentiment-driven rise in Chinese steel prices. Thermal coal inventory at Chinese ports on the other hand declined through June, while seaborne prices ended the month around a year-to-date high. Domestic Chinese output restrictions and higher unit costs have spurred optimism over stronger import demand in the coming months.
Source: SGX | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIP TRADING AND ORDERING CLOSE TO A STALEMATE AS SUMMER LULL KICKS IN
With newbuilding activity already at a near standstill since the start of the year, most of 2016’s trading activity in shipping was evident i ...
Tuesday, 02 August 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.71% week over week to averaging $41.12 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Monday, 01 August 16
4200 GAR INDONESIAN COAL PRICE MAY TOUCH $ 32/33 A TON LEVELS SOON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal prices are likely surge further in 2016 as the recent price movement in Indonesian coal markets suggests that the mar ...
Monday, 01 August 16
BALTIC INDEX ENDED NEGATIVE NOTE THIS PAST WEEK ON WEAKER RATES ACROSS ALL LARGE VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape, Panamax and Supramax segments end ...
Friday, 29 July 16
U.S. COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15 million short tons ( ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- The University of Queensland
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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